The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump

The second republican presidential primary debate is less than two weeks, so the time is running out so that the candidates for the GOP meet the qualification criteria of the National Republican Committee. To make the debate of September 27, each candidate must have at least 3% support in two national qualification polls, or at least 3% in a single national survey and this same figure in the polls of two different anticipated voting states, conducted since August 1. Each candidate must also provide evidence to have reached at least 50,000 unique donors in their campaign. And if they have polls and donors, candidates will again have to sign a commitment to support the final candidate in 2024 of the party if they want to participate.

In the state that things, there is decent chances that fewer candidates will qualify that the eight who attended the first party rally in August. Six of this byte seem to have donors and polls to do the second debate, and everyone signed the RNC’s commitment for the first debate, there is therefore no reason to think that they will no longer sign. However, the Governor of Dakota of the North Doug Burgum and the former Governor of Arkansas Asa Hutchinson may find it difficult to qualify again under the higher thresholds of September for polls and donors. And after jumping the first debate despite a qualification easily for this – except the signing of the RNC’s commitment – former President Donald Trump also seems to avoid the second debate.

Fivethirtyeight’s analysis revealed that Florida Governor Ron Desantis and technological entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy had at least 3% support in each qualification survey (Trump also did). Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former vice-president Mike Pence and the former governor of New Jersey Chris Christie met this brand in almost all investigations, while Caroline Southern Senator Tim Scott arrived in about three quarters of them. And none of these six candidates showed a sign of difficulty when it comes to reaching the 50,000 donors’ mark. Even Pence’s campaign, which has struggled to attract donors that most, announced in mid-August that he had enough unique contributors to qualify for the second debate.

With 11 days to be traveled to the qualification deadline on September 25, the survey threshold going to 3% compared to 1% seems to be the main obstacle for candidates who have not qualified. Burgum announced at the end of July that he had 50,000 donors, but Fivethirtyeight’s analysis revealed that he had reached 3% in a single survey across the state scale, a survey in mid-August from the Iowa of Trafalgar Group. Now, the Burgum campaign could argue that it has reached 3% in New Hampshire, on the basis of 2.5% that it collected in another traffic survey in mid-August or the 4% that it reached in a survey at the beginning of August of CO / Efficient on behalf of the New Hampshire Journal. We cannot exclude that the RNC could count the second Trafalgar survey, although the RNC did not show any indication that it was willing to round the results of the survey reported with decimal during the qualification for the first debate. However, because Co / Efficient questioned this cycle for Trump, his New Hampshire investigation will not count under the RNC survey rule that excludes surveys conducted by affiliated organizations with a candidate or a candidate committee.

However, that he has polls in one or two first states, Burgum had trouble reaching 3% of national surveys. It is not surprising that Best of America Pac, a Super CAP supporting Burgum, reserved $ 4 million in advertisements between August 30 and September 24. However, there is not much evidence that it stimulated Burgum: the most prolific national survey, Morning Consult, has published data for seven national surveys since Aug. 1, but Burgust preceded more than 0%. In fact, Burgum has reached 2% in a single national survey which has sampled at least 800 republican voters probable since August 1, a survey on Kaplan’s strategies carried out just after the first debate.

Meanwhile, Hutchinson needs the other two polls And Donors to make the scene, although it seems likely to reach the brand of 50,000 contributors. Last week, a campaign spokesperson told ABC News that Hutchinson was “very close” to donors’ requirement, and that he had obtained a last minute increase in contributors to qualify for the first debate. On the survey front, Hutchinson has something that Burgum does not do: a national survey of 3% or better, thanks to a Kaplan Strategies survey taken before the first debate. But Hutchinson did not exceed 1% in any national poll potentially eligible since the first debate. And he did not do the best in early surveys, which makes it unlikely that he will obtain qualification surveys of two different states to combine with his sole national investigation to respond to the other RNC survey qualification.

It is difficult to imagine that another Republican will have a chance to qualify for the September debate. The former representative of Texas Will Hurd seems to have a qualification survey of the New Hampshire – an Echelon Insights / Republican Main Insights / Republican Main Street Partnership survey – but like Burgum and Hutchinson, he had trouble identifying 1% in most investigations. And while Hurd could reach the 50,000 donors mark, his public refusal to consider signing the RNC’s commitment almost guarantees that he will not make the scene. In addition, the businessman Perry Johnson and the host of Radio Larry Elder have almost qualified for the first debate, and the two threatened legal action against the RNC alleging that he has unjustly prevented them from on stage. But even if Johnson and / or Elder can reach 50,000 donors – Johnson claimed to have so much In mid -August – None of the candidates has a qualification survey in their name.

Finally, the presence of Trump – or his absence – is looming on the debate process. The former president questions above 50% in the national average of Fivethirtyeight, which makes it a clear favorite to win the appointment of the GOP. However, while the average of Trump fell slightly after the first debate, he mainly recovered his pre-debate post, suggesting that voters did not really penalize him for having jumped the event. It is therefore not surprising that he seems determined to jump the second debate and to hold the counter-programming that evening, just as he did for the first debate when a pre-tape interview between Trump and the former animator of Fox News Tucker Carlson broadcast at the same time.

With the probable absence of Trump, the second debate is once again put in place to be a confrontation among the main alternatives of the party, none of which seems to be positioned to put an important challenge to Trump. However, it is essential for these candidates to make the scene of the debate, because not to qualify could point out to the donors that their campaigns have really no chance of success. In addition, without Trump holding the spotlight, the debate will offer other Republican contenders an opportunity to be seen and heard by a large audience. It’s a chance that candidates do not want to waste, like a sterling pound debate performance could – could – Move the course of their campaign.