Biodiversity collapse threatens UK security, intelligence chiefs warn | Biodiversity

The global attack on nature threatens the UK’s national security, government intelligence chiefs have warned, as the increasingly likely collapse of vital natural systems would lead to mass migration, food shortages and price rises, as well as global disorder.

Food supplies are particularly at risk as “without significant increases” the UK would be unable to compete with other countries for scarce resources, a report for ministers says.

Some vital ecosystems could collapse within five years, threatening the UK’s national security and prosperity, according to the 14-page report.

Many impacts are already being felt in the form of crop failures, intensified natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks. These phenomena will intensify, leading to “geopolitical instability, economic insecurity, conflicts, migrations and increased competition between states for resources”.

The hard-hitting report, which would have initially been published last autumn without Downing Street intervention, is attributed solely to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, but the Guardian understands that the Joint Intelligence Committee, which oversees the spy agencies MI5 and MI6, is responsible.

National security experts have increased their warnings that the climate crisis will bring existential dangers for which we remain unprepared. Tuesday’s report focuses on an even less-addressed threat, that of collapsing biological systems, such as tropical forests transforming into savannah-like conditions under the impact of deforestation, climate change and other stresses.

Lieutenant General Richard Nugee, a former senior military commander, said: “This assessment, a welcome and important recognition of the very critical nature of the diversity of threats facing the UK, treats ecosystem collapse with the seriousness it deserves, as a threat to our national security. When risks are systemic, unavoidable and already present, there is a duty to build national resilience and preparedness, which depends on understanding and honesty.”

The report is unusual in that it applies military intelligence techniques to examine the biodiversity crisis unfolding across the world. “Critical ecosystems that support key food production areas and impact global climate, water and weather cycles are most important to the UK’s national security,” the report said.

“Severe degradation or collapse of these resources would most likely lead to water insecurity, a sharp reduction in agricultural yields, a global reduction in arable land, a collapse of fisheries, changes in global weather patterns, a release of trapped carbon exacerbating climate change, new zoonotic diseases and a loss of pharmaceutical resources. »

The authors identify key hotspots that are increasingly under threat as being “particularly important” to the UK, including the Amazon and Congolese rainforests, boreal forests, the Himalayas and the coral reefs and mangroves of South East Asia.

Some of them, including coral reefs and boreal forests, are expected to start collapsing from 2030, while others could take until 2050, the report said. Some scientists have warned that the Amazon is already showing signs of changing faster than expected.

Ruth Chambers, a senior researcher at Green Alliance, a think tank which pressed the government to publish the report, said: “It should be essential reading for the government. It should focus minds on meeting targets to reverse the decline of nature in the UK, where progress is lagging in most areas. But it should also make us think again about abandoning international efforts to preserve biodiversity, such as our failure to contribute to a fund for the world’s rainforests at the last world climate summit.”

Ministers are debating how much the UK should spend to help poor countries tackle the climate crisis and stem nature’s decline, as the current pledge of £11.6 billion to be spent from 2021 to 2026 comes due. Inside sources suggested to the Guardian that the amount would likely be significantly reduced and that the lockdown on some spending on nature-related projects could end.

Zac Goldsmith, who was climate and nature minister under Boris Johnson, warned against such moves. “The assessment shows that we cannot hope to be able to destroy key ecosystems like large forest basins, peatlands, mangroves or coral reefs without serious consequences for our security and prosperity. But that is what we are doing,” he said. “The government has shifted its priority from nature to a very narrow focus on carbon and we must hope that this report will force a reversal. »

The report also says the UK needs to focus on its own food systems, which rely heavily on imports, because without strong action “it is unlikely that the UK will be able to maintain its food security if ecosystem collapse leads to geopolitical competition for food”.

David Exwood, vice-president of the National Farmers Union, said the government must provide financial support to help farmers invest in environmental improvements and food production. “With an increasingly unstable geopolitical and climatic situation, we cannot rely on imports to meet our needs. Investing in our national food security must be a priority, and that starts with investing in land,” he said.

A Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs spokesperson said: “Nature is the foundation of our security, prosperity and resilience, and understanding the threats we face from biodiversity loss is crucial to tackling them. The findings of this report will inform the actions we take to prepare for the future.”