Rams vs. Seahawks: These X factors in NFC Championship could determine who advances to Super Bowl

This season’s NFC Championship Game features the most exciting division rivalry game in recent memory with the fifth-seeded Los Angeles Rams traveling to face the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks on Sunday.

With the Rams winning 21-19 at home in Week 11 and the Seahawks surviving 38-37 in overtime at home in Week 16, Sunday’s NFC Championship Game will be the first cross-divisional playoff game in NFL history where both regular-season meetings were decided by two points or less, according to CBS Sports Research. Los Angeles dominated Seattle by one point (58-57) and outscored them by just one yard (830-829) during the 2025 regular season. These two teams practically played to a draw this season. This game is also a matchup between the NFL’s No. 1 defense, the Seahawks unit that has allowed a team-best 17.2 points per game, against the NFL’s No. 1 offense, the Rams’ offense that has averaged an NFL-best 30.5 points per game.

So, what or who will be the key to swinging the third and final clash of the season between these two NFC heavyweights? Obviously, 2025 Rams All-Pro first-team quarterback Matthew Stafford and 2025 Rams All-Pro first-team wide receiver Puka Nacua will play crucial roles, as will the Seahawks’ three 2025 second-team All-Pro defenders: defensive tackle Leonard Williams, linebacker Ernest Jones and cornerback Devon Witherspoon.

However, let’s look at the X-factors for each team beyond their respective top-ranked NFL units that will have a critical impact in deciding which NFC West powerhouse will represent the NFC in Super Bowl LX.

Rams – Defensive Front

The Los Angeles Rams have one of the best pass rushes in football: Their quarterback pressure rate of 41.7% is fourth-best in the NFL in 2025, and their 47 sacks are tied for seventh-best in the league this season.

The unit had three players with at least seven sacks in 2025 between edge rusher Byron Young (12.0, tied for eighth in the league), edge rusher Jared Verse (7.5, tied for 29th in the league) and edge rusher Kobie Turner (7.0, tied for 35th in the league). Only the AFC’s top-seeded Denver Broncos (four players) had more such players this season. That’s why it’s difficult to game plan against the Rams’ defensive front because offenses can’t trust their protection to just one player.

Current Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold found that out the hard way during the playoffs. Last year, with the Minnesota Vikings, he absorbed an NFL playoff record nine sacks in a 27-9 wild-card round loss that served as his playoff debut. Darnold also struggled with ball security in both regular season games with the Rams as the Seahawks’ quarterback in 2025. He threw a career-high four interceptions during a 21-19 road loss to Los Angeles in Week 11, and he was pressured on a season-high 46.2% of his dropbacks while throwing two interceptions and being sacked a season-high four times in a 38–37 overtime home victory against the Rams in Week 16. Darnold also threw for 270 yards and two touchdowns that day.

In Darnold’s last three games against defensive coordinator Chris Shula and his Rams defense, he has committed at least one turnover — on a sack or strip-sack fumble — under pressure from this Los Angeles Rams defensive front.

That’s why Los Angeles’ defensive front is the Rams’ Darnold is also dealing with an oblique issue that clearly hampered his mobility in the Seahawks’ divisional round win over the San Francisco 49ers, so the Rams coming home against Seattle’s offensive line could have an even more outsized impact in the third and final game of the season between these NFC West rivals.

* Includes nine sacks in the 2024 wild card round loss to the Vikings, tied for the most in a playoff game in NFL history.

Seahawks – RB Kenneth Walker III and the offensive line

Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold led the 2025 regular season with 20 turnovers, and he’s clearly dealing with an oblique injury right now after seeing him try to move around in the pocket during the NFC divisional round win over the San Francisco 49ers.

That’s why the collective ability of running back Kenneth Walker III and the Seahawks offensive line to initiate the running game to relieve Darnold of literal and metaphorical pressure will be one of the biggest keys to a Seattle victory on Sunday.

The defense (three recoveries, one interception and two fumble recoveries) and special teams (Rashid Shaheed’s 95-yard return touchdown for the opening kickoff) played a huge role in putting the Seahawks on cruise control in their 41-6 divisional round win over the 49ers, as did Walker and the offensive line. He exploded for 145 yards from scrimmage (119 rushing on 19 carries for an average of 6.1 yards per carry and 29 receiving) and three rushing touchdowns in a winning effort. That effort put Walker in a club with 2005 NFL MVP running back Shaun Alexander as the only player in Seattle Seahawks history with at least three rushing touchdowns in a playoff game.

Darnold will likely need another performance from Walker, especially with fellow Seattle forward Zach Charbonnet ruled out for the season with what appears to be a torn ACL. The Seahawks’ ability to put Walker in a strong rhythm will certainly make the difference if their quarterback commits two or fewer turnovers or more than two turnovers against the Rams. In the Week 16 home win in which Darnold had just two interceptions, Walker recorded 100 rushing yards on 11 carries for a mind-blowing 9.1 yards per carry and a rushing touchdown, completed from 55 yards out. During Darnold’s four-interception collapse in Seattle’s 21-19 road loss to the Rams, Walker had less than 70 rushing yards, 67 and one touchdown, from one yard out, on 16 carries for an average of 4.2 yards per carry. Walker, who did it twice, and Atlanta Falcons 2025 first-team All-Pro Bijan Robinson are the only running backs with more than 100 scrimmage yards and at least one rushing touchdown against the Rams this season.

Walker’s performance on Sunday will have an outsized impact on Darnold’s ability to hold on to the football.