Bettors Guide for AFC, NFC Championship games

AFC TITLE GAME: PATRIOTES at BRONCOS

3 p.m., Patriots at 5 p.m., 42 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: The Broncos would have been favored by 1 ½ with Bo Nix so that’s a 6 ½ point difference with Jarrett Stidham. Nix played one of his best games before being injured against the Bills, but several times this season he was only mediocre and the defense still carried Denver to victory. So our question is: Can Stidham play at the level of Nix’s worst games? Sean Payton has successfully groomed backup QBs (Teddy Bridgewater) in New Orleans and he’s certainly a good enough game planner to make the right allocations – and with Stidham having not played in three years (before Drake Maye came into the league), what can Mike Vrabel expect in his preparation? The wild card is if and how JK Dobbins plays. Since Week 11, after Dobbins’ injury, the Broncos’ running game has deteriorated. Without him, the onus would fall squarely on Stidham, but Dobbins has been practicing and should adapt.

On the other hand, we’ve always viewed the Broncos’ defense as not being as good as its stats, i.e. very good but not dominant, especially against top quarterbacks like Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, and Josh Allen. Now they will face an MVP candidate in Maye. Still, Maye’s performance in the playoffs fell far short of the regular season, especially in the area of ​​ball security. No one has had more sacks than the Broncos this season, so Maye needs to take better care of the ball. On the other hand, with the Broncos playing so much man coverage, the athletic Maye has more opportunities to take off and make things happen with his capable legs. Also consider that while Stefon Diggs excels against man, he will be facing All Pro Patrick Surtain II. Then consider that Maye passed the ball to a deep receiving corps. The Patriots should win even if the value is clearly on Denver’s side. It’s a riddle. And with so much speculation at stake, the wisest bet might be one of less. We know the Broncos aren’t going to open things up with Stidham and we know these are two of the highest-rated defensive units in the NFL.

IF I WAS A POTTOR: Broncos and under.

NFC TITLE GAME: RAMS at SEAHAWKS

6:30 p.m., Seahawks by 2 ½, 48

HANK’S HONEYS: He’s arguably the best quarterback in the league against the best defense in the league. On top of that, you have one of the best offensive minds in the league, Sean McVay, against a defensive genius, Mike Macdonald. There’s a lot of recency bias at play in how the Seahawks have gone and how the Rams have fared, especially on defense. But much of this is justified. The Seahawks stand out as the more balanced team and their defense has been crazy. Outside of the last game against the Rams, a bit of an anomaly since it was a Thursday night, they have allowed two touchdowns since Week 13. The Seahawks have the four best fronts in the league. Mix in the blitz, which the Bears used to good effect last week, and Stafford will be under a lot of heat as he attempts to work the intermediate zones between the linebackers and the two safeties. No one sees the field better, but Stafford appears to be less than 100%.

Without a doubt, the Rams have been Sam Darnold’s kryptonite, mainly because they can apply quick pressure without blitzing. If it falls entirely on his shoulders, the Rams will win. He flexed against them in last year’s playoffs and threw six interceptions against them in this year’s two games, contributing greatly to all of those Rams’ points thanks to gifted field position. Los Angeles’ defense, however, did not dominate the point of attack. Zach Charbonnet finished but Seattle should be able to rely on the other side of its double Kenneth Walker III and control the clock from its two tight formations. And then there’s this: Since the 1970 merger, local teams are 15-5 in conference championship games between division rivals. The perception is that this will be a high-scoring game, just like Thursday night. However, if you’re the Seahawks, you don’t want Darold trying to tie points with Stafford. You’re going to want to control the game on the field and with your defense.

IF I WAS A POTTOR: Seahawks and under.

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BEST BET OF THE WEEK: sea ​​hawks

LAST WEEK: 2-2, 1-3 over/under

GENERAL ELIMINARIES: 3-7, 6-4 over/under

BEST BETS: 1-1