The Luka trade: Four questions on the one-year anniversary
There has never been a trade like this in NBA history.
A perennial MVP candidate caught off guard and fired mid-season? In the season after taking his franchise to the NBA finals? As he approaches his peak?
A year later, the deal that sent Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers is still as stunning as ever. And people around the league are still scratching their heads at the idea of the Dallas Mavericks getting what is widely seen as a return on their investment, with all due respect to 10-time All-Star Anthony Davis.
“I have never seen a transaction that caused so much collective shock and confusion within the league,” a top agent, who did not have a client involved in the transaction, recently told ESPN.
Our NBA insiders address four of the biggest questions facing the Lakers, Mavericks and the rest of the league on the one-year anniversary of one of the NBA’s most stunning deals.
Are the Lakers closer to a title a year after the trade?
Hours before trade ended last season, a Lakers win over the New York Knicks on Feb. 1 improved their record to 28-19. This season, they arrived in New York on February 1 with a nearly identical 29-18 record.
Does this mean the exchange was a failure? Well, of course not.
The similar records have more to do with Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves only playing eight games together this season due to injuries.
If there hadn’t been a trade and Davis’ body had suffered the same series of injuries over the past year — he played in 29 total games as a Maverick, while Doncic played 67 for the Lakers over two seasons — Los Angeles’ struggles this season could have been much more pronounced than they have been thus far.
It’s hard to see the Lakers as a contender — even with Doncic leading the league with 33.7 points per game — unless they can significantly improve their 25th defensive rating.
That’s not to say the Lakers can’t improve their standing in the West — they sit in fifth place with Doncic, James and Reaves back on the court. That doesn’t mean they won’t be tough in the playoffs, either, with those three calling the shots.
But the only way for this team to get significantly closer to a title this season is to pull off another trade in early February before Thursday’s deadline to address its 3-and-D deficiencies. — Dave McMenamin
How do the Mavericks emerge from the short-lived AD era?
The “AD era” never really began in Dallas.
The second half of last season was a long period of mourning for Mavs fans. It took a remarkable stroke of luck in the lottery to resurrect any hope of enthusiastic support from morose fans.
As soon as the Mavs cashed in on that 1.8% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, it was clear that Cooper Flagg — not Davis — would be the franchise’s priority for the foreseeable future. Then, the firing of general manager Nico Harrison at the start of the season eliminated any doubt about the direction of the franchise.
In this sense, the Mavericks have evolved. From this point on, every personnel decision will be viewed through the lens of maximizing the Mavericks’ potential to build around their teenage prodigy and his future.
That’s why the Mavs have spent the last few months exploring the trade market for the 32-year-old Davis, who clearly doesn’t fit the franchise’s long-term outlook.
Dallas — and specifically Gov. Patrick Dumont, who makes final franchise decisions — must determine the threshold for pulling the lever on a Davis trade.
The ideal return in a Davis deal includes first-round compensation, young talent and financial help in the form of expiring contracts. But don’t hold your breath waiting for that to happen before the deadline as Davis recovers from yet another injury – ligament damage in his left hand should sideline him at least until the end of the month.
Some within the organization would favor trading Davis even if the return is only for expiring contracts, simply because they like the flexibility it would give the franchise as it builds around Flagg.
That idea would be a tough sell to Dumont, who feels no pressure to trade Davis now, sources told ESPN. — Tim MacMahon
How has trade affected this year’s deadline?
For starters, the architect of the trade, Mavericks general manager Harrison, was fired in November.
The Mavericks under Harrison acquired Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gafford, PJ Washington and Davis on three consecutive dates.
With Harrison no longer in charge, the “win now” timeline – centered on Irving and Davis – is replaced by a focus on reorganizing the roster around Flagg and a potential lottery pick in June’s draft.
A decision on Davis’ future will likely wait until the offseason, but that doesn’t rule out the Mavericks exploring options to reduce payroll going forward and opening up a roster spot to convert two-way player Ryan Nembhard.
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As for the Lakers, the Doncic trade has them operating on two schedules at the deadline.
The current schedule adds to a roster with Doncic, James and Reaves while focusing on financial flexibility in the coming years. The Lakers have over $40 million in expiring contracts, consisting of Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent and Maxi Kleber. They also have a 2031 or 2032 first-round pick to trade if necessary. The future timeline involves building a roster around Doncic and Reaves.
With Doncic under contract for the next three seasons, the Lakers could have $50 million in cap space this offseason and nearly double that amount in 2027.
They will also have three first-round players (2026, 2031 and 2033) available to trade starting on draft night. — Bobby Marques
What are league insiders saying a year later?
The recurring theme I get from people around the NBA whenever a trade is brought up is the abiding astonishment that this happened at all — as well as how Dallas could claw its way out of the aftermath.
Harrison was fired following the deal and its aftermath, but Davis’ future is an ongoing topic of discussion — his value is nowhere near what it was perceived to be when Harrison made him the centerpiece of the deal.
Luckily for the Mavericks, they were lucky enough to land Flagg in last year’s draft. Without Flagg, the franchise would be nothing more than a desolate wasteland in a still-competitive Western Conference.
Several times over the past few months, sources have reiterated to ESPN a variation of the question: “Can you imagine where Dallas would be if it hadn’t won the lottery?”
On the other side of the deal, the Lakers continue to be a work in progress. The irony of the Doncic trade is that in the two years leading up to it, Dallas had done an excellent job surrounding him with exactly the kind of talent required to maximize his skill set: a pair of centers who run to the rim and block shots; 3-and-D guards and forwards to play defense and hit 3s around him; and another high-level shot creator to take the pressure off him when he’s on the court while leading the team when he’s not.
Los Angeles has the final part with Reaves (if he is retained as a free agent this summer), but they are essentially starting from scratch for the rest.
And while they are the Lakers and will have space to build this team around Doncic, building a championship-level team in the West is much easier said than done. — Tim Bontemps
