Super Bowl Guac Is Super Destructive. Some People Want to Fix That.

For many Americans, chips and guacamole are as much a part of Super Bowl Sunday as the game itself. More avocados are sold for big game than any other time of year. This was not always the case. Americans eat nearly 10 times more guacamole during the Super Bowl than they did 25 years ago. But America’s growing obsession with guac comes with enormous hidden costs: deforestation, water theft, violence and threats to the survival of one of North America’s most iconic species. It is now the turn of new initiatives to mitigate some of the damage before it is too late for these irreplaceable ecosystems, communities and wildlife.

Most avocados consumed in the United States come from Mexico, specifically Michoacán, a culturally rich region known for its natural wonders. Among these wonders are the mountain forests where millions of monarch butterflies spend the winter, gathered in the oyamel firs. Monarchs from the United States and Canada travel up to 3,000 miles to reach these forests in one of the most incredible migrations on the planet, making them a symbol of resilience, community and immigrant rights.

But avocado expansion is destroying the wintering forests that monarchs need to survive. Last year’s population count in Mexico found monarchs in just 4.42 acres of forests. They must be in a minimum of 15 acres to stay out of the danger zone of migratory collapse. This year’s tally is expected to be just as grim.

As of 2018, nearly 2,400 acres of the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve had been cleared for avocados. With increased logging in surrounding forests and water retention by avocado plantations (it takes about 18.5 gallons to grow one avocado), the butterflies’ remaining habitat has become even more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. A 2023 report from Climate Rights International, titled “Unholy Guacamole,” documented widespread deforestation beyond the reserve’s borders. More than 10 football fields a day have been cleared over the past 10 years to make way for more lawyers.

This rampant deforestation is not only devastating for monarch butterflies. Local communities are losing their forest lands. A guide from a small village in the region told me that butterflies and their forests are part of their heritage and their future: butterfly tourism helps keep their community afloat.

Local guides fear the consequences of losing the monarchs for them and their families. But they are also afraid to express themselves. The US market has turned avocados into “green gold”, attracting organized crime, corruption and violence to the region. Forest defenders were kidnapped and beaten. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has repeatedly suspended avocado imports due to threats and violence against its inspectors.

Yet avocados are only growing in popularity in the United States. It’s already a record year, with an estimated 290 million pounds of avocados imported in the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl. The area of ​​land used for avocado trees in the region is estimated to increase by 70 percent by 2050. Since much of the agricultural land has already been converted to avocado plantations, this could put even more forests at risk.

But there is hope that avocados’ path of destruction can be stopped. Last year, Michoacán’s government worked with a committee of environmental and agricultural experts to launch a certification program aimed at preventing producers who destroy forests from accessing lucrative U.S. markets. The Guardián Forestal program certifies packinghouses that source only from orchards where no land has been deforested since 2018 or affected by forest fires since 2012.

Because the certification is based on satellite data, it presents a level of accountability and transparency that may be lacking in similar programs, which too often rely on self-reported data or understaffed inspection teams. In less than a year, more than 40 packaging plants across five Mexican states have joined the certification program. The two states authorized to export to the United States, Michoacán and Jalisco, account for more than 90 percent of companies exporting to the United States and about 70 percent of the avocados consumed here.

Packing plants worked with the program to select their suppliers, which prevented 2,900 orchards from selling to them. Although it is early to fully assess the results, at least 16 municipalities have recorded a reduction in forest loss since the program began.

The momentum is impressive, especially for a voluntary program in an industry plagued by many challenges. Much of the success so far has come from slaughterhouses realizing they could face liabilities on both sides of the border. In Michoacán, environmental threats are taking a very real toll. The region suffers from extreme drought and the loss of forests further compounds the problem.

In the United States, people are increasingly aware of the damage caused by the avocado industry. Companies that have made sustainability claims or tout deforestation-free policies for other products recognize that this could become a problem for their customers and investors. (Some of these companies have already been sued.) They are starting to ask questions, signaling that they would like to buy from certified orchards.

But having most of the packing houses exporting avocados in the certification program is not the same as having them all. Even a relatively small percentage of orchards can lead to devastating deforestation in a region that cannot afford to lose any more of its forests. The entire industry must get involved to stop the destruction in Michoacán and ensure that similar bad practices do not spread to other regions where avocado production is expanding.

The U.S. government could strengthen the certification program by banning avocado imports linked to recent deforestation. In 2024, more than 25 organizations urged the State Department to work with USDA to make this happen.

Based on existing mechanisms that regulate pest imports and readily available satellite data on forest cover, the United States had a clear path forward to help transform the industry and support its own deforestation and climate goals. That path no longer seems likely under an administration that favors deregulation and has abandoned the country’s environmental commitments.

In December 2024, monarch butterflies were nominated for protection under the Endangered Species Act. These protections would include a recovery plan and funding to restore their habitat in the United States, which would ease pressure on butterflies on this side of the border, creating more resilient populations to survive Mexican winters.

But Trump officials have indicated they don’t plan to do anything about the proposal this year, hardly a surprise since they didn’t list any species in the Endangered Species Act last year, instead working to weaken the law and cut staff working to help wildlife.

Even with the federal government on the sidelines, the U.S. market may provide the biggest hope for pushing efforts to end avocado deforestation over the goal line. If U.S. retailers adopt a policy of only purchasing imported avocados from certified suppliers, the remaining packing plants will have to adhere or risk losing their largest market.

Costco introduced commitments in its 2025 Sustainability Report to reduce deforestation in its avocado supply chain by moving away from sourcing from regions with the highest risk of deforestation, increasing its purchases of fair trade and other certified avocados, and engaging with suppliers around the Guardián Forestal program. Shareholder resolutions on avocado deforestation have been introduced at several other companies, including Walmart and Kroger.

“We have made real progress and have a solution in place, but the risk to our forests has not yet disappeared,” said Heriberto Padilla, general director of Guardián Forestal. “US supermarkets can help us finish the job by using our certification program to clean up their supply chains. »