A moment of truth for Democrats ahead of this week’s DHS shutdown deadline: From the Politics Desk

This is the online version of From the political officea daily newsletter bringing you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur profiles the government funding battle happening this week on Capitol Hill. Plus, Adam Edelman and Jane C. Timm enter the race to become the top election official in four key battleground states.

Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.

—Adam Wollner

A moment of truth for Democrats before this week’s DHS shutdown deadline

Analysis by Sahil Kapur

The Department of Homeland Security is expected to run out of funding Friday night, and Democrats released a list of demands to win their votes to keep money going to Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection — the agencies charged with transporting the president. Donald Trumprepression of immigration.

Republicans control the White House and both houses of Congress. The Democrats’ main lever is therefore the Senate, where the Republican Party controls 53 seats and needs 60 to pass a funding bill.

The political environment is changing in ways that have emboldened Democrats who wish to adopt a confrontational posture. Recent polls show that Trump’s approval of his handling of immigration has fallen and voters are recording high levels of disapproval of ICE.

And a twist last week in New Jersey’s special primary election highlights the changing mood within the party. Progressive activist and self-described “agitator” Analilia Mejía is leading a multi-candidate field, which includes a former congressman and a former lieutenant governor, and is on the brink of a massive upset in a primary that is still too close to call, according to the NBC News Decision Desk.

Unlike his more moderate Democratic rivals, who have taken more nuanced positions, Mejia explicitly calls for the abolition of ICE. They are fighting for a neighborhood that Kamala Harris won by 9 points and was last represented by the Democratic governor. Mikie Sherrill.

The political context highlights the dilemma facing Democrats on Capitol Hill, where negotiations are not going well.

There’s a political problem: Top Republicans are balking at Democratic demands, like requiring officers to remove their masks and obtain court warrants to conduct searches of private property, among other things. And they have their own demands, such as cutting funds for “sanctuary cities,” which Democrats consider outside the scope of this negotiation.

And there is a process problem: the negotiation structure is messy. Officials speak at the staff level, but many Republicans publicly reject Democrats’ policy demands. Democrats say negotiations would be better at the congressional leadership level, but Republican Party leaders say they should strike a deal with the White House, as they did on the recent funding package, which included a two-week DHS bill.

In other words, congressional Republicans have little appetite for playing ball — the vast majority of them represent safe districts or states. If Trump agrees to a deal, recent history suggests they probably will. But they have their own leverage: ICE has $75 billion in funding as part of Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” that won’t stop with a shutdown. And other DHS functions like TSA and FEMA would take a hit.

So any deal that could become law would likely be incremental, well short of Democrats’ opening offer.

But if they can’t reach a deal with the White House, the party will face a moment of truth: Will they accept another stopgap bill or force a shutdown of DHS? And will it end differently than last fall’s shutdown over the Affordable Care Act, when Democrats finally gave in without concessions?

Trump’s election threats are shaping this year’s key secretary of state elections

By Adam Edelman and Jane C. Timm

President Donald TrumpThe call to “nationalize” elections and persistent false claims of fraud are defining races this year for positions that oversee the voting process in key battleground states.

Democratic candidates for secretary of state have brought Trump’s comments and his administration’s recent actions — including lawsuits over the state’s voter rolls and the recent FBI raid at an Atlanta-area election center — to the forefront as part of a broader messaging effort focused on protecting elections.

And Republicans vying to be top election officials in those states have largely lined up behind Trump’s aggressive approach and his baseless claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him.

Here’s a look at how four races in critical key states are progressing:

Arizona: Democratic Secretary of State Adrien Fontès is running for a second term this fall. His only Republican challenger is state Rep. Alexander Kolodinwho participated in efforts to file numerous lawsuits seeking to overturn Arizona’s 2020 results, including one aimed at preventing the state’s voters from voting for Joe Biden.

Georgia: Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffenspergerwho rejected Trump’s call to “find” more votes in Georgia after the 2020 election, is now running for governor this year. The GOP primary to succeed him Gabriel Sterling — the director of operations for the Georgia Secretary of State’s office who emerged as a public face of the harassment and threats election officials faced after the 2020 election — and Vernon Jonesa Trump ally who supported the president’s false voting claims.

Also running is state representative. Tim Fleming and business owner King Kelvinwho both expressed concerns about the results of the 2020 election.

Democratic candidates include Fulton County commissioner Dana Barrettwho openly criticized Trump and his allies; Penny Brown Reynoldsa former television judge who served in the Biden administration; And Adrien Consoneriea voting rights activist.

Michigan: Democrats seek to replace secretary of state Jocelyne Bensonwho is running for governor, includes lieutenant governor. Garlin Gilchrist and Ingham County Clerk Barbara Byrumboth of which portrayed Trump and his allies as threats to democracy.

On the Republican side is the Macomb County Clerk. Anthony Forliniwho has addressed allegations of non-citizen voting as a major focus of his campaign, as well as Monica Yatoomabusiness owner and Trump supporter.

Nevada: Republican Sharon Angle is the only current challenger to the Democratic secretary of state Cisco Aguilarwho won the job four years ago.

Angle, a former state Assembly member who repeatedly ran unsuccessfully for statewide office, was part of a group in Nevada that filed a lawsuit to block the certification of Biden’s 2020 election victory in the state, citing allegations of widespread voter fraud.

Read more →

➡️ Related: State officials say Trump administration has been absent on election security

That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. Today’s newsletter was written by Adam Wollner.

If you have any comments (like or dislike), please email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

And if you’re a fan, share it with everyone. They can register here.