ACA Subsidies Expired. Open Enrollment Ended. But It Will Still Take Awhile To Register the Results.
It’s February, so open enrollment for the Affordable Care Act is closed. We’re getting our first look at how enrollment is changing after the expiration of enhanced subsidies that helped most people pay their premiums.
Although more Americans have registered than some political analysts expected, the number remains 1.2 million lower than this time last year. And experts say it will be months before the numbers are final. The timing will depend on how many people who signed up for coverage actually pay their premiums and stay enrolled.
In the coming weeks, “consumers may find that they really can’t afford the premiums and cancel their plans, while carriers may also cancel coverage for nonpayment,” Pat Kelly, executive director of Your Health Idaho, an ACA marketplace based in the state, said on a Jan. 22 call with reporters.
The decline comes after several years of record enrollment, with 24.2 million signups for the 2025 enrollment year. Enrollment growth took off after enhanced subsidies — which reduced the amount most households had to pay out of their own income for premiums and removed an upper income cap — took effect under the Biden administration. Lawmakers, in passing the enhanced grants, set the expiration date as Dec. 31, 2025.
The debate in Congress over extending these more generous subsidies has been heated, even leading to the longest government shutdown ever. Now, the subsidies have returned to their original levels, and people who earn more than four times the federal poverty rate (about $62,600 for an individual or $84,600 for a couple) cannot benefit from them at all.
Enrollment declines were seen in most states this year, with the largest decline in North Carolina, where enrollment fell nearly 22%, according to federal data.
In a few places – including New Mexico, Texas and Maryland, as well as the District of Columbia – the number of people choosing ACA plans has increased.
The increase was largest in New Mexico, with the number of people choosing plans up nearly 18%. Increases were in the single digits in other states and Washington, DC.
New Mexico – uniquely – used its own taxes to fully offset the loss of more generous federal tax subsidies for all consumers. A few other states, including California, Colorado, Maryland and Washington, have used state money to help some enrollees.
We will continue to monitor developments over the coming weeks.
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