Miami University’s NCAA Tournament selection scenarios: Can Redhawks get in with one loss?

It’s important to distinguish between CV metrics and predictive metrics when talking about a team like Miami (Ohio) and the NCAA Tournament bubble. Selection decisions are closely tied to your resume and what you’ve accomplished, which is a good thing for Miami.

The cries are already coming: “but Miami hasn’t even played a Quad 1 match.”

Despite the fact that he hasn’t played a single Quad 1 game and is just 1-0 in Quad 2, there is a metric on the official NCAA team sheets that recognizes the brilliance of an undefeated start for Miami, which improved to 26-0 with an 86-77 victory at UMass on Tuesday night.

It’s called Wins Against Bubble (WAB) and it calculates the performance of an average bubble team against your schedule. With a WAB score of around 2.15 after Tuesday’s win, the No. 22 RedHawks are recognized for having more than two more wins than the average bubble team against their roster.

The next step for Miami

The schedule remains for Miami, which is trying to become the first team since Indiana accomplished the feat during the 1975-76 season.

If Miami doesn’t win the MAC tournament and needs a ticket to the Big Dance, WAB will be one of its best friends. The RedHawks were ranked No. 34 in the WAB heading into the matchup with UMass, which appeared to be the toughest regular season matchup on their slate. It’s over a wider territory. Where it gets tricky is that any loss to MAC opposition results in a significant WAB penalty.

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Here are all of the Sunday Selection storylines for Miami as it heads to its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2007.

NCAA Tournament Selection Scenarios for Miami

The simple scenario (winning the MAC tournament)

Save: Between 29-5 and 34-0
Confidence level: It’s a party
Probable WAB range: It doesn’t matter

Break out the balloons and hire a caterer for the watch party. Miami can go 5-0 to close the regular season, 0-5 or something in between. It doesn’t matter, as long as the RedHawks cut down the nets inside Cleveland’s Rocket Arena when the MAC tournament concludes on March 14.

Winning the MAC tournament is the only 100% guaranteed path to the Big Dance, and it won’t be easy. The MAC is not one of the few conferences that now offers automatic semifinal byes for its top two seeds. The RedHawks will have to win three games in three days against a field composed exclusively of the eight best teams in the league.

Many players from that Miami team participated in a crushing 76-74 loss to Akron in last year’s MAC Tournament title game in which the Zips rallied late to stun the RedHawks. This should only provide more motivation as Miami looks to win its first conference tournament title since 2007.

The MAC Madness scenario

Selection record Sunday: 31-1, 32-1 or 33-1
Confidence level: Feel optimistic
Probable WAB range: 35-43

Miami could still have a reasonable hope of making the Big Dance if it entered the MAC tournament 31-0 and then lost a game. While on some level the loss might matter, the RedHawks would still enter Selection Sunday with a WAB ranking in the overall field regardless of who was responsible for their first loss.

A loss on a neutral court in the MAC tournament would likely result in a WAB cost of around 0.80. If Miami lost 0.80 in WAB today, it would drop the RedHawks from #34 to #42.

The team with the highest WAB ranking left out of last year’s field was West Virginia, which came into the draft Sunday ranked 43rd in the WAB. The 2025 selection process was the first to use the WAB, so there is not a wealth of past precedent to rely on. But WVU’s exclusion last year sets a benchmark for Miami to reach: not falling to 43rd.

Finishing the regular season undefeated and then losing in the MAC tournament would likely be enough to keep the RedHawks in the upper 30s or lower 40s in the WAB, which would be enough for them to enter Selection Sunday with cautious optimism.

Double defeat scenario

Selection Sunday record: 30-2, 31-2 or 32-2
Confidence level: Feeling nervous
Probable WAB range: 43-52

The double-loss scenario involves Miami losing a regular season game, in addition to a MAC tournament game.

This would not be advisable, as it would likely lead to Miami’s Selection Sunday WAB rankings landing in the mid-40s, at best. However, in this scenario, the opponent’s loss in the conference tournament could be the difference. If it’s a high-end Quad 2 loss to Akron in the title game, it would cost less.

The team with the worst WAB ranking selected from last year’s field was Xavier, who was in the bottom four at No. 49 in WAB. However, the Musketeers counterbalanced their lagging CV metrics with a predictive metrics profile hovering around 40th nationally.

The University of Miami does not have good predictive metrics to rely on. So getting out of the low and mid 40s in WAB would make things dicey. If Miami loses twice, a slip of this magnitude is likely, and it would make the selection uncomfortable.

Three-loss scenario

Selection Sunday record: 29-3, 30-3, 31-3
Confidence level: Better prepare for disappointment
Probable WAB range: 50-60

A 3-2 finish to the regular season, combined with a loss in the MAC Tournament, would decimate Miami’s chances overall. In this scenario, the best outcome imaginable would be for the RedHawks to lose the MAC tournament title game to Akron in heartbreaking fashion that tugs at the committee members’ heartstrings. But that would be a difficult argument to make.

With three losses under its belt, Miami would almost certainly lag behind other bubble teams in terms of recovery measures. Remember, it’s not just about a win-loss record. This is your entire CV. WAB does a good job of quantifying that, and it wouldn’t be on Miami’s side if the RedHawks lost three times.