Agent’s Take: Which path will Lamar Jackson take for new Ravens deal?

Time is running out for the Baltimore Ravens to reach an agreement with quarterback Lamar Jackson on a contract extension before owner Steve Bisciotti’s target date of March 11, the start of the 2026 league year. Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta expressed optimism that a deal could be reached during his NFL Scouting Combine press conference on February 24.

Jackson, who represents himself and has never had an agent, has two years worth $104 million remaining on the five-year, $260 million contract he signed in 2023 after being designated a franchise player. The two-time NFL MVP is set to earn $52 million in 2026, including a base salary of $51.25 million, $29 million of which is fully guaranteed, and a workout bonus of $750,000. Jackson’s salary cap hit for 2026 is $74.5 million. These numbers are the same for Jackson in 2027. The $74.5 million is the second-largest number for 2026.

Jackson has a no-trade clause. There is also a provision preventing the Ravens from designating Jackson as a franchise or transition player when his contract expires after the 2027 season.

The 2025 season was one to forget for Jackson. After a fast start, Jackson was slowed by injuries (hamstring, ankle, toe, knee and back). He missed four games with hamstring and back issues. Injuries limited Jackson’s mobility. He rarely played at an MVP level after the Week 4 hamstring injury until the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the regular season finale. The Ravens, who were favored to win Super Bowl LX before the season started, missed the playoffs with an 8-9 record.

Jackson has significant contract leverage despite an injury-plagued and below-average 2025 season by his standards. It’s because of his tremendous ability, those clauses in his contract and the sky-high cap hit.

The ball is in Jackson’s court as to which path he wants to take with a new deal. Jackson could follow in the footsteps of Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and leave money on the table in an effort to improve his chances of winning a Super Bowl or that of Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott where he leverages his influence.

The Bills renegotiated Allen’s contract last March, although he had four years worth $154,554,595 left on the six-year, $258 million extension, averaging $43 million per year (worth up to $288 million thanks to incentives), which he signed in 2021. Allen got a new six-year deal for $330 million dollars. The maximum value is $333 million due to a $500,000 annual incentive for winning the Super Bowl. The contract includes a record $250 million in guarantees. The fully guaranteed $147 million at signing is the second-highest amount ever in an NFL contract.

It’s extremely unusual for a team to cut a contract with four years remaining, as the Bills did. Allen was clearly focused on cash flow rather than maximizing average annual salary. At $55 million per year, Allen is tied for the second highest paid player in the NFL with Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals), Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) and Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers).

Allen’s $220 million from 2025-28 is the best four-year cash flow ever in an NFL contract. He surpassed the previous high of $219 million (2024 to 2027) during Prescott’s four-year, $240 million contract extension signed in 2024, which made him the first $60 million per player in the NFL. Being named the 2024 NFL MVP over Jackson should have given Allen enough ammunition to become not only the cash flow king, but also the highest-paid player in the league instead of being tied for second place.

Jackson focusing on total money instead of extension or average new money would be a huge negotiating win for the Ravens. For example, Jackson barely exceeds Allen’s cap value at $334 million over six years through the 2031 season, which would be a four-year, $230 million extension after subtracting his remaining two years of contract worth $104 million. At $57.5 million per year, Jackson would be the second-highest paid player in the NFL behind Prescott.

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Jackson’s cash flow over four years, from 2026 to 2029, is expected to be higher than Allen’s $220 million. It would also likely be necessary to surpass Allen’s record $250 million in guarantees and have at least $150 million guaranteed at signing.

The most aggressive stance Jackson could take to exploit his influence, as Prescott did, is to insist that his current contract should be adjusted for salary cap inflation. The salary cap was $224.8 million when Jackson signed in 2023. The NFL recently informed teams that the salary cap for 2026 is expected to be between $301.2 million and $305.7 million.

That’s about $70 million per year in a 2026 salary cap environment. The 16.67% increase over Prescott’s contract would be the largest increase in the quarterback market over a single deal since the end of the 2011 lockout, outside of Patrick Mahomes’ one-time 10-year extension, worth $450 million, or an average of $45 million per year, with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2020. Jackson could justify this huge raise because the Ravens reset the safety market by 18.12% by signing Kyle Hamilton to a top-tier contract. Extension of $100.4 million over four years, or an average of $25.1 million per year, as of August.

Jackson should want the first three years to be fully guaranteed (2026 to 2028) and for the full guarantees to end after the fourth year (2029) if he conducts an extremely tough negotiation. That would represent $225 million fully guaranteed at signing and $275 million in overall guarantees based on Hamilton’s structure.

The Ravens will surely prefer to repeat history with a Jackson contract extension. His $52 million per year was 1.96% more than Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts’ $51 million per year extension he received just weeks earlier. A similar increase from Prescott’s $60 million per year would put Jackson at $61.175 million per year.

A happy medium might be to use Prescott’s situation as a guide. Prescott’s $60 million per year was 9.09% more than the quarterback’s standard $55 million per year salary before his deal. A comparable increase applied to Prescott’s $60 million equates to $65 million per year.

Regardless of which route Jackson takes, his new contract will likely include a record signing bonus, which was the case in 2023. His $72.5 million was the highest amount ever in an NFL contract, eclipsing Prescott’s $66 million in his 2021 contract. Prescott’s current contract included an NFL record signing bonus of $78,453,333.

Up to $34 million in cap space for 2026 could be created by breaking Prescott’s signing bonus record. For example, Jackson getting an $85 million signing bonus prorated to $17 million per year from 2026 to 2030 with his minimum base salary of $1.3 million and the $750,000 workout bonus remaining in the deal would reduce his 2026 cap hit to $41.55 million, which would free up $32.95 million in cap room for 2026. There is already $22.5 million prorated for 2026 from Jackson’s signing bonus and two option bonuses in his current contract.

Jackson should really fight to eliminate or reduce his workout bonus under a new contract. He left $1.5 million on the table because he didn’t participate in 80% of the offseason workouts needed to earn the bonuses in 2024 or 2025.

The Ravens have a backup plan if a deal can’t be reached in time. Bisciotti indicated in a January news conference after John Harbaugh was fired as head coach that Jackson’s contract would be restructured rather than increase his cap hit by $74.5 million.

The Ravens would free up $37,462,500 in cap space for 2026 by converting Jackson’s entire 2026 compensation minus his league minimum salary and workout bonus into a signing bonus. That $49.95 million would be prorated across Jackson’s two remaining contract years and two already existing sham/void years to reduce his 2026 cap hit to $37,037,500. Jackson’s cap hit for 2027, the final actual year of his contract, would increase from $74.5 million to $86,987,500.

Just imagine the type of trading leverage Jackson would have in 2027 by having a bounce-back season. The quarterback market could increase significantly in 2027, as 2024 draft picks Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Caleb Williams will be eligible for contract extensions. At least one of the three should reset the quarterback market.

Jackson could let the market develop further with these quarterbacks before making a new deal. With Jackson returning to some semblance of his previous form in 2026, he would virtually be able to name his own price in a contract extension in 2027 since the Ravens would be powerless to prevent him from leaving free agency in 2028 if his contract expired.