Bracketology: Iowa State falls to No. 4 seed, Texas Tech rises in NCAA Tournament projection

Iowa State fell to No. 4 on CBS Sports Bracketology after its 73-57 loss to No. 2 Arizona on Monday night. It was the Cyclones’ third loss in their last four games and highlighted how tight the teams from the Nos. 2-4 seeds are with less than two weeks before Selection Sunday.

Less than two weeks ago, Iowa State was the fourth No. 1 seed in the rankings. March Madness bracket preview. But with little separation between the 6-14 teams in the overall ranking hierarchy, recent struggles have come at a cost for the Cyclones, who still have a solid 14-6 record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games.

Texas Tech moved up from fourth place to third place to replace Iowa State as it continues to thrive without star forward JT Toppin. The Red Raiders have won three straight since losing their season’s leading scorer and rebounder to a knee injury. During this period, they made 45.1% of their 3-point baskets. Among their wins is a road victory Saturday against Iowa State that could have a particularly big impact if the selection committee compares the teams side-by-side.

Bracketology Bubble Watch: UCLA, TCU among NCAA Tournament hopefuls with massive Tuesday games

David Cobb

Here’s a look at how the CBS Sports Bracketology model sees the top of the standings entering a busy Tuesday of action.

Best Bracketology Seeds

Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.

Movement since preview

Purdue is another loser since the Feb. 21 bracket preview. The Boilermakers landed on the second line when the selection committee offered its annual preview of the top 16 seeds. Now, the Boilermakers are now third after back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Ohio State.

Among those on the rise since the bracket preview is Michigan State. The Spartans are on a four-game winning streak and now reside on CBS Sports Bracketology’s No. 2 seed after landing as a No. 4 seed during the committee’s preview. Florida and UConn also moved up in our model. The Huskies landed as a No. 2 seed in the bracket preview, but are the fourth No. 1 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology after recent losses to former No. 1 seed contenders like Iowa State, Houston and Purdue.

After landing as the No. 3 seed in the bracket preview, Florida is now hot on UConn’s heels for the final No. 1 seed. The Gators can win an outright SEC title with a win against Mississippi State on Tuesday. Alabama also quietly moved from fifth place on CBS Sports Bracketology to third place while rebuilding an eight-game winning streak highlighted by last Saturday’s road victory over Tennessee.

Rematch Rules

Amid conference consolidation and the proliferation of non-conference matchups between big schools, the NCAA tournament selection committee faces challenges in trying to avoid regular-season rematches. The 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket included three potential second-round matchups between conference teams, although none came to fruition.

The committee will always seek to minimize conference meetings and non-conference rematches, and our model is coded to do the same. However, NCAA bracketing principles allow games between conference teams in the second round, provided the teams have played each other only once before the NCAA Tournament. For conference teams that have met twice before the NCAA Tournament, the principles state that they should not meet before the Sweet 16. If the teams have played three times, the NCAA bracketing principles state that they should not play until the Elite Eight.

Regarding rematches of non-conference games, the NCAA’s bracketing principles state that they should be avoided “in the top four and first round.” The committee will also “attempt to avoid” non-conference rematches in the second round. But the committee has always prioritized keeping teams on their natural starting line rather than changing their starting line in an effort to avoid a rematch.