The US and Israel gravely underestimated Iran’s response – here in the UAE, we are seeing the consequences | Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi

Since Saturday, my mind has been divided between the place where I live, Abu Dhabi, and Tehran, which has been the subject of my work and research for over 15 years, and where I still have family. When I saw that Israel and the United States had attacked Iran, I began to worry about my family and think about the potential consequences. But I barely had time to think about it before Donald Trump announced it was regime change. At that time, I knew it was going to be serious – worse than last June – and that it would lead to a regional schism. As expected, Iran’s response began soon after: first against Israel, then against states in the Gulf region, including the United Arab Emirates. All this followed the worst escalation scenarios we had sketched since June, and especially since January, when – in the midst of protests – Donald Trump declared that “help” was on the way.

I continued to try to reach my family when the internet was working there, which was a few minutes a day at best. Each conversation is short, practical: are you okay? Is your territory affected?

My main concern is for the residents of Tehran, the most targeted city so far. Relatives describe being asked to continue going to work, while authorities attempt to project a sense of “status quo,” even though the reality is far from normal. Communication is patchy, news comes in fragments, and ordinary people face risks they did not choose, absorbing the consequences of external events. There is fatigue in their voices – don’t panic. And sometimes they write to me to check on me, for us. Which is even more surreal.

In the United Arab Emirates, the approach has been methodical and reassuring. Schools have moved online. Workplaces have shifted to remote arrangements to avoid risks. Air defense systems are visible, with warnings and alarms when incidents occur. Life goes on, but each day brings new questions: how long will this last? What consequences will prolonged instability have on our lives, on our children? Even in a prepared city, our daily routines are fraught with uncertainty.

What is also striking is how the administrations in Washington and Israel have seriously underestimated Tehran’s response, with Trump admitting that he was surprised by Iran’s retaliatory strikes on the Gulf – something those of us who had been modeling regional escalation had warned against in case Tehran felt cornered or existentially threatened.

So, the million dollar question. What happens next?

This is unlikely to be decided by a single strike or statement, but by how long that pressure will be maintained, how many red lines will be crossed, and how much damage will accumulate before restraint enters the calculation again. But for now, neither side appears ready or willing to de-escalate, adopting a maximalist stance despite the regional fallout.

For Iran, the stakes are existential: the survival of the regime, the territorial integrity and the credibility of its deterrence capacity are at stake. For Israel, the calculation is strategic but uncompromising, shaped by the conviction that this moment represents a narrow window to permanently degrade Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities, even at the risk of a broader escalation. For the United States, the stakes are geopolitical and systemic: balancing regime change ambitions, alliance credibility, and domestic political pressures with the costs of plunging deeper into another protracted conflict in the Middle East.

For Gulf countries, the risks are structural and threaten internal security, economic stability and their hard-won position as nodes of global trade and investment. For global markets and supply chains, the consequences are systemic, as ongoing instability in a region central to energy flows but subject to maritime bottlenecks reverberates well beyond the Middle East.

Meanwhile, climbing rarely remains confined to one location. The region as a whole is watching. Gulf states are quietly recalibrating, strengthening their defenses and updating their contingency plans. Traders and markets are on alert, and governments around the world are preparing for possible fallout. For ordinary people – in Tehran, Beirut, Gaza, Tel Aviv and, increasingly, the Gulf countries – the price is being paid by uncertainty, disrupted lives and a constant recalibration of what “normal” now means.

Iran, the United States and Israel will continue their fight. But we must not forget that it is not just about military strategy and deterrence; for those in the region, it is a question of human endurance.