How NBA’s conference gap has shrunk this season, playoff impact

A narrative has gripped the NBA this season: The Eastern Conference, depleted by injuries and low on talent, is a mess, while the West thrives with great teams and enthusiasm.

Indeed, the West’s playoff picture is full of intriguing stories, from the Oklahoma City Thunder’s quest to repeat as champions, to Victor Wembanyama’s rise for the ahead-of-schedule San Antonio Spurs, to veteran-laden contenders struggling for consistency in Denver, Minnesota, Houston and Los Angeles.

But with four strong teams, as well as a set of intriguing newcomers, the East has its own narrative hooks, contradicting the adage that East is less, West is better.

Let’s explore this narrative, why the Eastern Conference has underestimated its strength this season and how this surprising development could shape the upcoming playoffs.

Traditional Western dominance

After the East dominated interconference play for most of the 20th century, the West turned the tables for most of the 21st century. From 1999-2000 to 2024-25, the East had a better record in just three of 26 seasons, and all three of those victories were close, while the West often won the interconference battle by wide margins.

There are many examples illustrating the extreme imbalance between the two conferences during this century. During the 2002-03 season, the Detroit Pistons clinched first place in the East with a 50-32 record, while six West teams won at least 50 games. In 2003-04, only four Eastern teams had a winning record. In 2006-07, all five players on the All-NBA First Team were from the West. In 2013-14, the Phoenix Suns’ 48-34 record would have tied the Suns for third place in the East, but in the West they were ninth and missed the playoffs during the pre-play-in period.

This imbalance applied not only to teams, but also to the NBA’s top individual talents. In the 21st century, 63% of All-NBA players are from the West. In fact, the 2024-25 season was the first this century with more All-NBA players from the East (eight) than the West (seven).

Western teams have even had better luck in the lottery over the years, with elite prospects Cooper Flagg and Victor Wembanyama landing with Western teams. The five No. 1 picks in the 21st century with the worst career plus/minus marks were all drafted by Eastern Conference teams: Anthony Bennett, Zacharie Risacher, Kwame Brown, Andrea Bargnani and Markelle Fultz.

This long-standing trend seemed destined to continue, if not increase, this season, especially with two of the best teams in the East (the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers) losing their best players to Achilles tears. An analysis of Basketball-Reference’s preseason over-unders suggests that Vegas expected Western teams to win 54 percent of their interconference games, consistent with recent history, and five of the top seven teams in terms of preseason championship odds came from the West.

A reversed scenario in 2025-26

Contrary to expectations, the East has kept pace in the conference race this season. In Monday’s games, Western teams are just 161-157 against their Eastern counterparts, for a win rate of 50.6%. This is proof of parity and not unbalanced domination.

This balance is especially relevant at the top of the rankings: Eastern Conference teams rank second (Celtics), third (Pistons), fifth (New York Knicks) and eighth (Cleveland Cavaliers) in net rating, while Western Conference teams occupy first, fourth, sixth and seventh places. According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), four teams in the East are projected to win more than 50 games, compared to five in the West.

A natural counterargument might be that the best teams in the East get bigger against worse opponents. But the bottom of the West is just as bad, if not worse, than the bottom of the East; teams 11 to 15 in the East standings are on an average pace of 26.3 wins, compared to an average pace of 25.6 wins in the West. And according to Basketball-Reference’s simple scoring system, which ranks teams by point differential and strength of schedule, the East teams are second (Pistons), third (Celtics), fifth (Knicks) and seventh (Cavaliers) overall.

Additionally, we can examine team performance exclusively against Western Conference opponents, to adjust for differences related to strength of schedule. By this metric, 10 teams have a net rating above plus-3: five in the West (the top five teams in the rankings) and five in the East (the top four plus the Charlotte Hornets).

This hidden conference parity shows up not only when evaluating teams’ performances thus far, but also when projecting their performances for the rest of the season. According to the BPI playoff version, four of the top six teams play in the East. The so-called lower conference looks even better thanks to the full over-under estimate, from analytical site Dunks & Threes, which has four of the top five teams.

BPI playoffs for top six seeds

Every contender in the Eastern Conference has an obvious weakness that could thwart their Finals hopes. The Pistons rank 28th in 3-point shooting and haven’t won a playoff series since the George W. Bush administration. The Cavaliers are integrating an injured James Harden into their rotation and could look like paper tigers after back-to-back playoff flameouts. The Celtics are in a sort of limbo awaiting Jayson Tatum’s return from an Achilles tear. And the Knicks haven’t gelled this season. A team led by Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns will face big defensive questions in the playoffs.

Still, the same could be said of all the Western Conference contenders chasing the Thunder, who are the defending champions. San Antonio is inexperienced. The Denver Nuggets, weighed down by major injury problems, rank 21st in the defensive rankings. The Houston Rockets are 18th in offensive rating since Steven Adams’ left ankle injury, while the Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the least consistent teams in the league. And the Los Angeles Lakers have the worst defense of any team with a winning record, while outperforming their point differential by the largest margin of any team in the league.

Playoff implications

Despite this clear balance of the conference, the West should still hold some advantages between now and April. First, more A-list superstars are playing in the West. With Tatum still recovering and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks unlikely to make the playoffs, the top five players in the 2025-26 playoffs will all compete in the West: Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, Wembanyama and Anthony Edwards.

Second, the West has a very great team, with no obvious weaknesses. Even after a relative injury-induced slump, the Thunder still dominate every leading indicator of team strength. BPI gives them about a 50-50 chance of winning the title and becoming the first repeat champions since the 2017-18 Warriors; If the Thunder manage to qualify for the Western playoffs to reach the Finals, BPI projects they will beat their Eastern Conference opponent 78% of the time. (However, the top contenders in the Eastern Conference would have a chance to draw or better against any Finals opponent other than Oklahoma City.)

And third, the West has better depth beyond its top four teams, which should produce more compelling first-round matchups. Teams ranked fifth, sixth and seventh have better records in the West than in the East, and the star power of the Lakers, Golden State Warriors (with a healthy Stephen Curry) and LA Clippers means these teams pose as more dangerous playoff spoilers than their East counterparts.

On the other hand, the East’s first round could lack many surprises – although a healthy version of the Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Hornets could give a good scare to a top seed, if they continue to make the playoffs. A first-round series between Hornets and Pistons after last month’s brawl would be must-see television.

Detroit, Boston, New York and Cleveland will likely finish in the East’s top four in some order; according to BPI, there is only a 5% chance that one of them will fall. However, this structure could produce two conference semifinals every bit as enticing as what’s on offer in the West.

The most likely second-round matchups in either conference, according to BPI, are Pistons-Cavaliers and Celtics-Knicks. The playoff BPI rates all four teams almost identically, between five and six points above average. All four teams have at least a 20% chance of reaching the final, according to BPI estimates.

But a wide open race doesn’t mean an inferior race. This four-way fight is a tantalizing one, featuring young stars and veterans looking to erase dour playoff narratives, and former champions and proud franchises hungry for postseason success.

And this high-level competition means there will be no easy path to the final, as was the case in several previous years, when the East was far behind the West. Barring any unforeseen playoff upsets, whichever team becomes Eastern Conference champion will need to defeat two high-caliber opponents along the way. Whichever team from the East claims a spot in the finals will really have to earn it.