Women’s Bracketology Bubble Watch: Clemson takes down Virginia for crucial win

Conference tournaments are happening this week in women’s college basketball, and some teams’ bubbles are already starting to burst. A total of six of the 12 bubble teams listed in CBS Sports bracketologist Connor Groel’s study. last support played Wednesday. Three of those teams lost: Stanford, Texas A&M and Mississippi State.

Due to these losses, Stanford and Texas A&M fell from the top four to the bottom four, while Mississippi State remained in the bottom four. Stanford’s overtime loss to Miami in the ACC Tournament was Wednesday’s biggest story, as it virtually guaranteed the Cardinal would miss the NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row.

Meanwhile, Arizona State, BYU and Utah all advanced slightly in the bubble after winning first-round games on Wednesday, but all three teams likely still have work to do to secure an invitation. Notably, this is the first Big 12 tournament victory for the BYU Cougars since joining the conference in 2023.

What does Thursday have in store for us? Eight bubble teams will be in action in the conference tournaments today, then Richmond joins the action on Friday. Notably, Clemson and Virginia – the top two teams in the Last Four In bracket – faced each other in the ACC tournament. Clemson pulled away for a 13-point victory, a result that should make the Tigers feel comfortable entering the NCAA Tournament. Virginia, meanwhile, could well be sweating during selection Sunday.

Here’s Groel’s updated bubble after Wednesday’s games and when to see each team in action.

Last four in

• Clemson (defeat Virginia, 63-50, in the ACC tournament)
• Virginia (lost to Clemson, 63-50, in the ACC tournament)
• Colorado (vs. Kansas, R2 of the Big 12 tournament; Thursday at 9:00 p.m.)
• South Dakota State (vs. Kansas City in Summit League Tournament QF; Thursday at 1 p.m.)

First four outs

• Richmond (vs. TBD in the A10 QF tournament; Friday at 7:30 p.m.)
• Arizona State (vs. Iowa State in R2 of the Big 12 tournament, Thursday at 6:30 p.m.)
• BYU (vs. Utah in R2 of the Big 12 tournament, Thursday at 2:30 p.m.)
• Utah (vs BYU in R2 of the Big 12 tournament, Thursday at 2:30 p.m.)

Next four outs

• Stanford (lost to Miami 83-76 in R1 of the ACC tournament)
• Texas A&M (lost to Auburn 50-49 in R1 of the SEC tournament)
• Mississippi State (lost to Florida 86-68, R1 of the SEC tournament)
• Kansas (vs Colorado in R2 of the Big 12 tournament, Thursday at 9:00 p.m.)

Before 2025, Stanford had appeared in the Big Dance for 36 consecutive years, dating back to 1987 under the leadership of Tara VanDerveer. The Cardinal have won three national championships in the VanDerveer era, the most recent coming just five years ago. Longtime associate head coach Kate Paye took over after VanDerveer retired, but the former Pac-12 powerhouse has yet to find success as a member of the ACC.

Likewise, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are likely done after a loss to Florida, especially since they are 4-12 in their last 16 games and have just three wins against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. Texas A&M was one of the more intriguing bubble teams heading into conference play after a late-season surge that saw the team finish the regular season with five straight wins, including victories over Tennessee and Ole Miss. But the one-point loss to Auburn in Greenville will leave the Aggies on the outside of the madness that is upon them.