Can UCLA steal the No. 1 overall seed from UConn after 51-point rout in Big Ten final?

INDIANAPOLIS– Lauren Betts and Kiki Rice could be heard arriving long before they danced through the doors of the Gainbridge Fieldhouse press conference room Sunday afternoon, an hour after dismantling Iowa, 96-45, to win the Big Ten women’s basketball tournament.

The merry stars — Betts, the Big Ten player of the year, and Rice, the Big Ten tournament MVP — were blasting Drake’s 2015 hit, “Back to Back” from Rice’s portable speaker. Betts was on photo duty with his retro digital camera. Even off the field, they are the perfect 1-2.

Their song choice was a quiet nod to their second straight Big Ten Tournament title. This one was drama free. Their 51-point margin of victory was the largest in conference tournament title game history, and the largest victory ever by a Division I team against a top 10 opponent.

The declared wins don’t get any stronger, and the Bruins once again made their case that they are the best team in the country and deserve the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. The first will be decided on the field in a month in Phoenix, but the second will be decided next week by the selection committee.

UCLA coach Cori Close only cares about what she and her team can control.

“I don’t care,” Close said when asked if his team had done enough to claim first place overall. “When you focus on things outside of your control, it will negatively impact things within your control. I think if I put energy into that, I take energy away from what it’s actually going to take to get there. I think we need to focus on the how. How do we play our best basketball in March?”

Close may not care, but many people outside the program do. Ahead of selection Sunday, here’s a look at how the committee makes its decision and UCLA’s case for being No. 1 overall ahead of UConn.

Tale of the gang: UConn vs. UCLA

The undefeated defending champion Huskies were ranked No. 1 in the AP poll throughout the season. They are also No. 1 in the NET women’s basketball rankings and No. 1 in the selection committee’s top 16 revealed last week. Assuming UConn beats Villanova on Monday to win the Big East Tournament, all signs point to them being the top seed in the NCAA Tournament.

But do the Huskies deserve this honor? Let’s take a look at each team’s resume.

UConn may be undefeated, but UCLA has 10 more wins in Quad 1 — their 18 wins in Quad 1 are the most in the nation — and six fewer wins in Quad 4. UCLA’s only loss came then. 4 Texas in December.

Additionally, UCLA played the toughest overall schedule in the country this season, while UConn played the 58th toughest schedule. The Huskies, to their credit, have had the toughest non-conference schedule and can’t do anything about the Big East’s decline, but there’s no doubt that UCLA has played better competition over the course of the season.

The teams had five common opponents: Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, Tennessee and USC. Here’s a look at each program’s margins of victory in these respective matchups. UConn has the advantage in this department.

Now let’s look at some key metrics from Quad 1 games. UConn has a slight advantage here, but there is very little statistical difference between the two teams compared to the nation’s top opponents. Additionally, the stats have not yet been updated to reflect UCLA’s 51-point win over Iowa, which will give the Bruins a big statistical boost.

Finally, UCLA is first in the nation in wins above the bubble with a mark of 16.25, while UConn is fifth with a mark of 10.71. (Not counting Sunday’s matches.)

Here’s what CBS Sports bracket specialist Connor Groel, who pegs UConn as the No. 1 overall seed, had to say: “Long story short, UCLA has a better resume, but based on the top 16 reveals and UConn’s dominance, I can’t see an undefeated defending champion not being No. 1 overall.” »

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Connor Groel

How does the selection committee make its decision?

Prior to the 2020-21 season, the NCAA announced a new system called the NCAA Evaluation Tool – NET – as the primary modern ranking system used to evaluate the quality of teams for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.

NET evaluates a team’s opponents, match location, efficiency and results, and is based on two main elements: adjusted net efficiency and team value index. Here is how these two components are calculated.

Adjusted net efficiency

Measures overall performance using:

• Offensive efficiency (points per possession)
• Defensive efficiency (opponent points per possession)
• Strength of opponents
• Playing location (home/away/neutral)

Team Value Index

Results-based metric that rewards teams for beating better opponents and takes into account:

• Opponent quality
• Game location
• Win/lose outcome

Although NET is the primary ranking system, it does not solely determine seeds. As of this season, the selection committee also uses Wins Above Bubble, another results-based metric that measures the quality of a team’s resume, including:

• A team’s wins compared to what a typical bubble team would be expected to win in the same schedule.
• It does not take into account scoring margin or efficiency.

“For example, if an average bubble team were to win 19 games against Team A’s schedule, but Team A won 20, they would have a WAB rating of +1.0.”

Additionally, the NCAA states that the committee also considers the following criteria when determining seeds:

• Bad losses
• Common adversaries
• Competitiveness in losses
• Performance at the start of the season and at the end of the season
• Head-to-head results
• Observable components (eye test)
• Overall assessment
• Regional rankings
• Important victories
• Strength of schedule

“I never thought about it”

UCLA players are in sync with their coach during rankings discussion.

Gabriela Jaquez was candid after the team’s win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals on Saturday. “I never thought about it,” she said. Gianna Kneepkens wasn’t much more expressive. “I don’t think we’ve talked about it once. We don’t really care about it,” she said.

Across the board, the message was the same.

“We don’t talk about rankings or anything like that. It’s not something we can really control, so there’s no point worrying about it,” added Charlisse Leger-Walker on Saturday. “We’re very focused on what’s ahead of us, whether it’s a 1-0 practice or a 1-0 game. When Selection Sunday happens and the rankings come out, we’ll take care of that when the time comes.”

Ultimately, the No. 1 overall seed doesn’t matter much outside of bragging rights. UCLA will be one of the top two seeds and will play the first two rounds at home before almost certainly heading to the Sacramento Regional, a few hours’ drive from their campus.

An easier path certainly helps, but real title contenders don’t care about their seed or their path.

“We’re a great team. We did everything we needed to do,” Rice said Sunday. “The committee will make that decision, but we’re not focused on that.”