Bracketology True or False: Will Auburn or Indiana make it? Is Kansas a No. 5 seed? Will the ACC get nine bids?
With less than a week until Selection Sunday for the 2026 NCAA Tournament, the committee will soon begin the exhaustive process of selecting, seeding and ranking all 68 players. It’s a gargantuan task complicated by myriad factors that creates countless fascinating debates.
How do you properly prepare a Miami (Ohio) team that has 31 wins and solid resume stats but a lagging profile in terms of predictive metrics? How should the committee evaluate a North Carolina team that will be without leading scorer and rebounder Caleb Wilson for the Big Dance?
Then there is the bubble. It’s a chaotic mess filled with teams that played very different schedules. Perhaps the emergence of bid stealers will somehow change the bubble calculation, but there is no guarantee on what the general cut line will look like in just a few days.
Before results from the major conference tournaments start rolling in, our team decided to tackle some of the biggest looming questions with true/false predictions on topics that are driving the conversation as March Madness approaches.
Check out the latest CBS Sports Bracketology model bracket at the Bracketology Hub
True or False: Will Miami (Ohio) be a double-digit seed?
Verdict: TRUE
TRUE: And I’m only telling the truth because I’m going to predict (and I really want to be wrong) that Miami will suffer its first loss of the season in the MAC category. As a result, I think the RedHawks will find themselves on the 10 line in Selection Sunday. They definitely don’t deserve to be anywhere near Dayton, I can tell you that. The bubble is as complicated as any year in recent memory, and Miami U will enter it with a maximum of one loss and a top 40 WAB/SOR (if not close to the top 30). So double-digit seeds, but easily in the field. — Matt Norlander (senior college basketball writer)
True or false: Does Vanderbilt deserve to be a No. 4 seed ahead of Kansas in CBS Sports Bracketology?
Verdict: TRUE
Vandy currently has a clear advantage over Kansas. Vandy has the SOR advantage, is almost even in WAB, and has a solid advantage in TRK and KenPom. Although fans could argue that Kansas played without Darryn Peterson for much of the season, they were about the same team record-wise without him. Vandy, on the other hand, arguably is a much better team when Duke Miles is playing. Two of Vandy’s most disappointing losses (at home to Oklahoma and at Missouri) happened without Miles.
The big argument I’ll make for Vandy is something that stuck with me during the mock draft in Indianapolis last month. Clark Kellogg said he values road wins almost more than anything else. Vandy is 8-4 on the road and 3-0 in neutral games. Kansas is 5-6 on the road and 4-1 in neutral games. Kansas will not play Phog Allen for the remainder of the season. Vandy has shown it can win in chaotic environments – beating Tennessee this weekend proves that again – and Kansas hasn’t always shown it can. I give Vandy a solid pre-conference tournament advantage. — Jacob Fetner (Bracketology lead modeler)
True or False: We’ll Have More Than One Bid Stealer in the 2026 NCAA Tournament
Verdict: FAKE
The MAC is ripe to produce a bid stealer as Miami (Ohio) is likely destined for an at-large bid but is not necessarily expected to win the league tournament. Akron is the most likely burglar and could be a dangerous team in the Big Dance. This is one. But will we have another one?
Attention should turn to Atlantic 10 and the Mountain West. The A10 tournament favorites are Saint Louis and VCU, both currently in the CBS Sports Bracketology field. My bet is either the Billikens or the Rams will become tournament champions, which means no bid stealers.
The deciding factor would then be the Mountain West tournament. The league’s potential contingent appears to be Utah State (a lock) and New Mexico (currently in the top four outs). But if the Lobos reach the Mountain West title game, they could be a viable team and more clearly categorized as a bid stealer. Therefore, I will say that there will be no Mountain West deal stealers either. — David Cobb (college basketball writer)
Bracketology Bubble Watch: Ranking the Conferences Most Likely to Produce NCAA Tournament Bid Stealers
David Cobb
True or false: Auburn and Indiana. Great brands. CVs that divide. At least one will participate in the NCAA tournament?
Verdict: FAKE
If Auburn beats Mississippi State in the first round of the SEC Tournament, which is not a guarantee, it will have to face No. 5 seed Tennessee in the second round. It’s hard to imagine the Tigers winning back-to-back games at this point, but that’s probably the minimum requirement. It’s a similar story for Indiana, which will open against Penn State or Northwestern. The Hoosiers should win this game, then beat a Wisconsin team that has some pop. Even if there’s just one bid stealer (see above), that could be enough to keep Auburn and Indiana out if neither team heats up this week. –Cobb
True or False: Should North Carolina receive a seed since Caleb Wilson is done with his year?
Verdict: True (with context)
The committee reiterated that context is important. If that’s the case, Wilson’s injury should wreck UNC’s ranking prospects, but not drastically. An important factor here is that the committee has a large sample size to judge the Tar Heels without Wilson. UNC went seven games without the star freshman in the lineup and went 5-2 with wins over Virginia Tech and Clemson and road losses to NC State and Duke.
If the committee abandons Carolina, it must remain consistent for every season-ending injury to a high-leverage starter. So that means teams like BYU (Richie Saunders), Texas Tech (JT Toppin), SMU (BJ Edwards), Kentucky (Jaland Lowe), and Gonzaga (Braden Huff) should also be slightly grounded in the mop-up process. If this is the path chosen by the committee, it cannot choose which injuries are significant or not. — Isaac Trotter (college basketball writer)
True or false: Nine ACC teams will participate in the ACC tournament?
Verdict: TRUE
Let’s start with the locks: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Miami, Louisville, Clemson and NC State. Then you have Cal, Stanford and SMU firmly on the bubble entering the final week. SMU, Cal and Stanford are next to each other in the WAB rankings. My guess is SMU takes the field, leaving Cal and Stanford near the cut line. My current goal would be for Cal to enter. There will be work to do at the ACC Tournament this week, but the Golden Bears should compete.
That would mean the ACC would have nine teams in the field. There are bound to be some bid stealers, which could prevent the league from hosting nine teams in the NCAA Tournament. Still, flirting with this number of teams in the Big Dance after recent lackluster seasons for the ACC would be a massive win. — Cameron Salerno (college basketball writer)
