NFL free agency overreactions: Did Colts, Dolphins make savvy moves?
The NFL’s two-day negotiating period set the stage for a plethora of eye-catching free agency moves, which will become official Wednesday at the start of the new league year. As is the case with most off-season activity, these agreed-upon signings and trades are ripe for overreaction.
Teams that have signed massive contracts — like the Colts with wide receiver Alec Pierce — should believe their money is well spent. Those who have made moves in the quarterback market — including the Falcons who rushed to get Tua Tagovailoa — should feel primed for success on offense.
However, not all free agent signings and offseason trades will produce the desired results, with a number of players still destined to underperform their contracts. But it goes both ways, because there will always be pleasant surprises.
Below, we set out to determine which are overreactions and which are reality.
For more 2026 NFL free agency coverage:
The Colts overpaid for Alec Pierce
Excessive reaction to reality: Reality
Keeping Alec Pierce in town was a priority. The contract he won is proof of that. His four-year, $116 million contract makes him the highest-paid free agent receiver in NFL history, and his average salary makes him the ninth-richest receiver in the league for 2026. The contract also features $80 million in guarantees, including $60 million at signing.
This is a major commitment to a player who narrowly avoided the franchise tag. It’s also a ton of money for a player who is, more than anything, a depth threat. Pierce led the NFL in yards per catch each of the last two years and broke the 1,000-yard mark last season on just 47 receptions. However, while he can take over defenses with the best of them, it’s a stretch to say Pierce is a top-10 receiver in the league.
There will be more opportunities in the short to medium term after the Colts trade Michael Pittman Jr. to the Steelers, but tasking Pierce with filling that role would take away what he does best in the vertical game. Unless Indianapolis plans to involve Pierce in new parts of the field, it has paid a premium for someone who is primarily a downfield target and cost itself a No. 1 receiver in the process.
Tua Tagovailoa decision is win-win for Dolphins and Falcons
Excessive reaction to reality: Overreaction
The Dolphins are burning through a record $99 million in dead money over the next two years after releasing Tua Tagovailoa. So, to make this costly separation worth it, they needed to get a certified upgrade. This was always going to be tough, as this is a not-so-compelling free agency class at the quarterback position, and spending $22.5 million per year on a still-unproven Malik Willis is a risk.
The Dolphins-Tagoailoa marriage was untenable, but it’s hard to say for sure that Miami is in a better position now than it was with the lefty on its roster. His financial flexibility is non-existent and his quarterback play could end up being worse if the Willis gamble fails.
Miami’s financial burden is Atlanta’s gain, as the Falcons only have to pay Tagovailoa $1.3 million to come in and compete with Michael Penix Jr. On the surface, it’s an affordable steal to hire a quarterback who could reignite his career with a fresh start. But what does Tagovailoa really bring to this franchise? If anything, his arrival only makes the future murkier and leaves Penix (a recent first-round pick, mind you) in limbo as the face of the Falcons.
This is shaping up to be another year without a clear direction for the Falcons at the most important position on the field.
Kenneth Walker III will lead the Chiefs back to the playoffs
Excessive reaction to reality: Overreaction
The lack of an explosive running game was one of countless reasons the Chiefs took a step back and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014. The arrival of Kenneth Walker III on a three-year, $45 million deal should fix that. The reigning Super Bowl MVP has a knack for getting to the second level and will be a great weapon to balance out Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the offense.
Kansas City’s ground attack will be better in 2026, but that may not be enough to ensure another 6-11 disaster isn’t imminent.
The Chiefs just lost two cornerbacks, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, and their cap situation makes it difficult for them to plug in star backups in the pass defense. And legitimate questions remain regarding the passing offense, which still lacks alpha in the receiving unit, and will see how much juice it can extract from a 36-year-old Travis Kelce.
Jerry Jones whiffed on his free agency plan
Excessive reaction to reality: Reality
Jerry Jones said the Cowboys will “spend more money in free agency” than in previous years. Of course, there’s still time for them to do that, but their biggest outside signing to date is safety Jalen Thompson to a three-year, $33 million contract. This better be the start of Dallas’ spending, because the defense needs a lot more attention.
The trade for Rashan Gary is also a bit of a headache. At $39 million over two years, that seems like an overpayment for a player the Packers seemed destined to release. And while this move provides desperately needed help, we must remember that the only reason Jones needed to add talent at this spot is because he traded away a superstar less than a year ago. This is another replay of the Micah Parsons trade and one that continues to make the Cowboys look like the losers of this deal.
The NFC West just got better
Excessive reaction to reality: Reality
Football’s top division isn’t slowing down. With the exception of the Cardinals, who parted ways with Kyler Murray and appear poised to compete for next year’s No. 1 pick, everyone in the NFC West has a chance to be as good or better than they were in 2025 following the first wave of free agency.
Things have been pretty quiet for the Seahawks, but maybe that’s for the best as they look to recharge for another Super Bowl run. The teams directly behind them in the division have taken steps that will help them compete for their own playoffs.
The Rams’ acquisitions of McDuffie and Watson filled two huge needs at cornerback and prepared them to compete for a Super Bowl before Matthew Stafford called it a career. The 49ers getting Mike Evans back — and doing so for a relatively modest $20 million per year — puts Brock Purdy with a No. 1 target that’s about as reliable as it gets.
All three Seattle, Los Angeles and San Francisco should enter the season hoping to make the playoffs again.
The Jets have repaired their defense
Excessive reaction to reality: Overreaction
No team acquired more new defensive players than the Jets, who signed five outside free agents and traded for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. The focus on retooling the defense is necessary after the Jets became the first team in NFL history to go an entire season without recording an interception and allowed the second-most points per game in the league. There will be new faces everywhere when Aaron Glenn takes over call duties in 2026.
It’s possible that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, but the additions don’t immediately seem to raise the group’s ceiling by a considerable margin. Edge Rushers Joseph Ossai and Kingsley Enagbare are good additions but are by no means game changers. Fitzpatrick and Demario Davis bring seasoned leadership and reliable production to a unit in need of a cultural overhaul, but in both cases their best years may be behind them.
The floor is higher on the Jets defense. There is no doubt about it. Last year’s group was so bad that even a handful of solid moves may not be enough to pull New York out of the gutter. Aaron Glenn’s job could hinge on this unit’s huge progress, so more moves could still be on the horizon as he looks to fix whatever went wrong in year one.
