1,300-pound NASA satellite set to crash down to Earth after 14 years in space

A 1,300-pound NASA probe is expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere, nearly 14 years after launch.

The U.S. Space Force’s latest projection predicted that the Van Allen A probe, launched in August 2012, would likely reenter Earth’s atmosphere at 12:03 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday.

NASA previously predicted the probe would reenter Earth’s atmosphere around 7:45 p.m. ET on Tuesday, citing the US Space Force. There is a 24-hour margin of uncertainty.

Most of the probe is expected to burn up as it re-enters the atmosphere, NASA said, although some components are expected to survive re-entry. There is a 1 in 4,200 chance that someone on Earth will be injured, NASA said, emphasizing that the risk is low.

The probe and a sister spacecraft, Van Allen Probe B, were sent to explore Earth’s permanent radiation belts and determine how particles therein are gained and lost. These areas, known as Van Allen belts, are rings of charged particles trapped by Earth’s magnetic field, according to NASA. They protect the planet from cosmic radiation, solar storms and solar wind.

Their mission was supposed to last two years, but ended up lasting nearly seven years, NASA said. Most missions to the belts are short to minimize exposure to harmful radiation.

The Van Allen probes were the first to spend significant time in the region, NASA said, and broke all records for spacecraft operation in that region.

The probes made a number of discoveries during their seven years of operation, NASA said. They collected the first data showing the existence of a third radiation belt that could form during periods of intense solar activity, and their observations were the subject of hundreds of publications, according to NASA.

The mission ended in 2019, when the probes ran out of fuel and could no longer orient towards the sun. An analysis by mission specialists found that the probes would likely re-enter Earth’s atmosphere in 2034, but the current active solar cycle has triggered intense space weather events and increased atmospheric drag on the spacecraft, dragging them down faster than expected.

Probe B is not expected to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere until the 2030s.