Reaching net zero by 2050 ‘cheaper for UK than one fossil fuel crisis’ | Climate crisis

Reaching the UK’s net zero emissions target by 2050 will cost less than a simple oil shock and will bring health and economic benefits while protecting the country from future costs, the government’s climate advisers have predicted.

Eliminating the UK’s dependence on fossil fuels by adopting renewable energy and green technologies, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, would be the best and most cost-effective option for the future economy, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has found.

This would help avoid the type of shock consumers are experiencing following the war in Iran, which has driven up the cost of oil and gas to levels not seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Reaching net zero would cost around £4 billion a year, according to the CCC, or almost £100 billion by 2050, roughly equivalent to the energy costs of the fossil fuel shocks that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The findings contradict widely held claims by right-wing think tanks and populist politicians, including the Reform Party, that net zero would represent a crippling £9 trillion cost to the UK economy. In addition to exaggerating costs, these estimates failed to take into account the cost of paying for fossil fuels needed for energy if we don’t reach net zero.

Nigel Topping, chairman of the CCC, said the real costs were not only manageable, but also provided protection against future fossil fuel supply shortages and the impacts of the climate crisis. “In light of current world events, it is more important than ever for the UK to stop relying on volatile foreign fossil fuels and move towards clean, domestic and less wasteful energy,” he said.

Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, said: “It is highly significant that the CCC found that the transition to net zero is cheaper for our national economy than the full cost of the last gas price crisis, and can protect families from future fossil fuel price shocks. It is further evidence that those who oppose our clean energy mission would abandon the pursuit of national energy security, cut bills and protect our children and grandchildren.”

Renewable energy is much more efficient than fossil fuels and is also harder for foreign governments to disrupt. People will also benefit from warmer homes, cleaner air, more active travel and healthier diets, with less red meat – representing around £2 billion to £8 billion in savings per year for the NHS and individuals.

Every pound invested to reach net zero returned between £2 and £4 in profits, the CCC found. Savings from avoiding some of the impacts of climate change would reach up to £130 billion by 2050, according to a report published on Wednesday to complement its advice to ministers on the seventh carbon budget.

The government must respond later this year to the seventh carbon budget, which will run from 2038 to 2042.

Mike Childs, science director of Friends of the Earth, said: “The current surge in the cost of gas and oil is a stark reminder of why we urgently need to end our dependence on volatile and expensive fossil fuels – not remain addicted to them as some cynically advocate.

“CCC’s analysis shows that switching to clean, green renewable energy and electric vehicles is not only economically reasonable, but will significantly improve our situation in the long term, while simultaneously preserving our environment. »

The UK is legally required to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 – the point at which the UK’s carbon output is balanced by the absorption of carbon dioxide from the country’s forests and land and all carbon storage facilities – but the Conservative Party and Reform have pledged to abandon this target.

Oil climbed above $100 (£75) a barrel on Monday, although it has fallen slightly since then as supply constraints persist as some production sites in the Middle East have been suspended and tankers are stuck in the Strait of Hormuz.

This is the second major oil price shock in four years, and experts warn that more shocks could be expected in the years to come as the geopolitical outlook remains volatile.

Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Institute at the London School of Economics, said: “It is clear that the UK would make substantial and lasting savings if it accelerated the transition to a largely electrified economy powered by clean domestic energy. »

Despite the recent rapid rise in the price of gasoline, the Reform Party would like to eliminate incentives aimed at encouraging people to adopt cleaner and more efficient heat pumps.

Paul Morozzo, UK climate campaigner at Greenpeace, said: “The reform solution… is to leave us even more exposed to gas markets that hit businesses and households with higher bills. »