How can Team USA advance at World Baseball Classic? WBC tiebreaker scenarios explained

Team USA, all of a sudden, is in trouble at the 2026 World Baseball Classic. Team USA was upset by Italy, 8-6, Tuesday night. The result takes the fate of Americans out of their own hands. Whether they qualify for the quarter-finals will depend on what happens when the undefeated Italians face Mexico on Wednesday night. The worst-case scenario for Team USA would see the all-star group eliminated after four group matches. This would happen with a low-scoring Mexico win over Italy.

Here’s where the American team stands:

• The team finished its match in Group B with a 3-1 record. The Americans handily beat Brazil and Great Britain over the weekend, notched a 5-3 victory over Mexico on Monday night, then suffered a disconcerting loss to Italy on Tuesday.
• The American team does not take the field in group play. Mexico and Italy meet Wednesday night in the final Pool B match (7 p.m. ET, FS1).
• The first and second placed teams from Pool B will advance to the eight-team knockout stage. The Americans can still finish first to third in the group.

Team USA features a powerful lineup with players like Bobby Witt Jr., Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Cal Raleigh. The rotation includes both reigning Cy Young winners, Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes. This team was favored to win the entire World Baseball Classic heading into the tournament and was one of the heavy favorite to win Pool B. It could all be undone by a tough night against espresso-hot Italian hitters.

So now, suddenly, Team USA needs help just to make it to the quarterfinals. The United States can move forward in two ways. One is simple. One is complicated. Let’s review both.

How can Team USA advance in the World Baseball Classic?

• Team USA will move on if Italy beats Mexico. This is the simple option. If Italy completes its unbeaten run in group play, the Italians will have a 4-0 record and win the group. Team USA will be 3-1 and in second place ahead of Mexico 2-2.
• If Mexico beats Italy on Wednesday, there will be a three-way tie at the top of Pool B. Team USA can advance if they win a tiebreaker. Team USA, Mexico, and Italy would all finish 3-1 overall and 1-1 against each other. This is where the complex tiebreaker rules of the World Baseball Classic come into play.

Explaining World Baseball Classic tiebreakers

A two-team tiebreaker is simple. If two teams finish 2-2 in a pool, the team that won the head-to-head finishes higher in the standings. A three-team tiebreaker? It’s simple, it’s not. Here are the tiebreaker rules for a three-team tie:

1. Lowest quotient of fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between tied teams.
2. Lowest quotient of the number of earned runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between tied teams.
3. Highest batting average in games this round between tied teams.
4. A draw.

Even though Team USA lost on Tuesday, scoring a few points late in the game against Italy could be very important. Here’s where the quotient rule stands in Tuesday’s action.

Remember, the lower the quotient, the better. Mexico recorded only 24 outs in a single game because Team USA didn’t have to strike in the ninth inning on Monday.

Two late homers from Pete Crow-Armstrong actually pushed the Italian quotient to the worst among the three teams in Tuesday’s games. In retrospect, they could be huge if Team USA advances.

Essentially, Team USA and its fans should stand for three things on Wednesday:

1. Italy will win
2. Mexico will score at least five points
3. No additional handle

If Mexico scores five or more runs in a nine-inning game, regardless of the outcome, that would be enough for Team USA to advance. A low-scoring game – like a 4-2 Mexico win, on the other hand – would see Team USA eliminated.

World Baseball Classic Odds

Oddsmakers still seem to like Team USA’s chances of advancing to the round of 16 and winning the competition. FanDuel ranks Team USA with the second-best odds for the WBC title behind the Dominican Republic after Italy’s loss. Puerto Rico, Japan, Korea, Venezuela and the Dominican Republic all clinched a place in the round of 16. The other three quarter-finalists will be determined on Wednesday. Cuba, Canada, Team USA, Mexico and Italy are all still alive.

Odds via FanDuel

• Dominican Republic: +180
• Team USA: +230
• Japan: +250
• Venezuela: +900
• Puerto Rico: +1900
• Mexico: +1900
• Italy: +2200
• Canada: +6000
• Korea: +7500
• Cuba: +10,000