Bracketology winners and losers: Duke pops Florida State’s bubble — UConn
Florida State’s late-season surge came to an end Thursday night in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals as the Seminoles lost 80-79 to Duke. FSU would have entered the NCAA Tournament with an upset win over the powerful Blue Devils, and they almost made it.
The ‘Noles led by eight in the second half behind a huge performance from Lajae Jones and Robert McCray V. The duo combined for 53 points as FSU scorched the nets on 52% shooting against a short-handed Duke team. Ultimately, a potential go-ahead 3-point attempt by McCray missed the target just before the final horn.
Even though it wasn’t Florida State’s night, facing CBS Sports Bracketology’s current No. 1 seed was another sign that the program is progressing. The Seminoles were just 7-11 (0-5 ACC) in mid-January under first-year coach Luke Loucks. At that point, the 35-year-old former Seminoles guard and longtime NBA assistant unlocked his team’s winning gear.
Before Thursday’s loss, FSU had won 10 of its last 12 games. The Seminoles won’t be dancing, but the program seems to have a bright future.
The Duke-Florida State thriller was one of several conference tournament games on Thursday with serious bubble implications. Here’s the bracketology-oriented winners and losers recap of the day’s action as Selection Sunday looms.
Winner: Oklahoma claims last place – for now
Like Florida State, Oklahoma bounced back from a miserable start to the conference to play meaningful basketball in the postseason. The Sooners overtook SMU as the last team in the CBS Sports Bracketology field of 68 on Thursday night after beating Texas A&M 83-63 in the second round of the SEC tournament. The win improved the Sooners’ score to 19-14 and set the stage for a quarterfinal matchup against Arkansas on Friday night that could determine OU’s final fate.
OU’s rise to serious consideration in the NCAA Tournament is a remarkable advancement that seemed impossible in early February. The Sooners have won eight of their last 10 games since a nine-game losing streak entering SEC play.
Winner: No. 1 seeded candidates survive debut
Duke survived FSU’s upset bid and will remain CBS Sports Bracketology’s No. 1 seed for now, as Isaiah Evans led the way with 32 points for a team playing without injured starters Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II.
No. 1 seed Arizona began its playoff journey with an 81-59 loss to UCF in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. UConn, which is the No. 2 seed by CBS Sports Bracketology, throttled Xavier 93-68 in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament. If the Huskies win the Big East Tournament and No. 1 seed Florida fails to win the SEC Tournament, UConn will have a strong case to surpass the Gators as the fourth No. 1 seed.
Loser: Miami (Ohio) leaves it to the committee
Miami (Ohio) finally suffered its first defeat on Thursday, losing 87-83 to UMass in the quarterfinals of the MAC tournament. The RedHawks are still in the CBS Sports Bracketology domain, but the loss leaves their ultimate fate in the hands of the selection committee. With a Wins Above Bubble (WAB) rating of around 1.75, Miami’s resume should hold up well in the committee room compared to teams on the cut line. One of WAB’s greatest features is that it allows the committee to compare resumes from very different schedules. The RedHawks received minimal credit for their 26 wins against Quad 3 and Quad 4 competition. But the streak of incremental wins accrued through those victories was not eradicated by a single bad loss. Still, the UMass loss caps Miami’s seeding ceiling, as a double-digit seed is now firmly within the realm of possibility.
Miami (Ohio) stunned by UMass, still thrown into the NCAA tournament field – but the fallout could be significant
Cameron Salerno
Winner: A two-auction MAC seems likely
Miami’s loss brought an obvious silver lining to the MAC, as the conference is now able to send two teams to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1999. Assuming Miami is selected as an at-large team, it will be joined by the eventual tournament champion. No. 2 seed Akron actually ranks as the league’s best team in predictive metrics and survived a scare against Buffalo to emerge. Victory 73-70. If the Zips make it to the Big Dance, they could be the best candidate for Cinderella. But don’t sleep on UMass, which will be in great shape after inflicting its only defeat of the season on Miami.
Loser: NC State cannot accumulate victories
NC State could have dispelled any doubt about its NCAA Tournament credentials by upsetting No. 2 seed Virginia in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. But the Wolfpack fell 81-74 and enter Sunday at 20-13 with seven losses in their last nine games. This team hasn’t won back-to-back games since early February, and the details of its resume don’t hold up well to scrutiny. NC State’s best road wins against Clemson and SMU have lost their value, and a 24-point victory over North Carolina comes with a significant asterisk since UNC was missing stars Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar. The Wolfpack are almost certainly safe. But a trip to the First Four remains within the range of potential outcomes.
Loser: Auburn wilts under pressure
Auburn could have moved to a position of relative safety with a victory over Tennessee in the second round of the NCAA tournament. But the Tigers wilted in the second half, falling 72-62 in a defeat that could prove fatal to their Liberty hopes next Sunday. At 17-16, they are now back in the top four outs of CBS Sports Bracketology. Tennessee used a 20-0 run to turn a 10-point deficit into a 10-point lead late in the second half as star freshman Nate Ament stole the show with 27 points.
Winner: Seton Hall Stays Alive
At a minimum, Seton Hall will need a win over St. John’s in the Big East Tournament semifinals on Friday to have any real argument to consider as a whole. But the Pirates took a vital first step Thursday by beating Creighton 72-61 in the quarterfinals. With so many other bubble teams struggling, the path is narrow for coach Shaheen Holloway’s club. The Pirates are still a long way off, but they’re not done yet.
Loser: Missouri will sweat a little
Is Missouri safe? Most likely. Are the Tigers a “lock”? Not quite. That status was within reach as the Tigers erased a 16-point second-half deficit against Kentucky in the second round of the SEC tournament. But Mizzou couldn’t get across the finish line in a 78-72 loss that will make the Tigers at least somewhat nervous going into Selection Sunday. The real uncertainty is probably less about making the peloton and more about making the top four. Three straight losses before Selection Sunday simply took the wind out of the sails of a 20-12 Mizzou team that played a weak non-conference schedule.
