NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Top-rated simulation predicts surprising upsets, March Madness picks, sleepers

Millions of people will watch the 2026 NCAA Tournament to follow elite programs like Duke, Michigan and Florida. However, finding the 2026 March Madness Cinderella teams and Earl March Madness upsets are a big part of what makes the tournament so popular. For the first time since 2001, the Hofstra Pride will be one of those upset March Madness 2026 picks with big dreams. Hofstra, coached by Speedy Claxton, a former NBA player and alumnus of the school, won the CAA tournament for an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

The No. 13 Hofstra Pride (24-10) faces No. 4 Alabama (23-9) in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket, so are they a team to back in the 2026 March Madness bracket picks? Before making your predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament, check out the March Madness 2026 bracket picks from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

Two years ago, SportsLine’s computer simulation produced huge upsets, including huge wins for No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation caused huge upsets, including calling both 9 seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model beat more than 91 percent of all players in the CBS Sports bracket in four of the last seven tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has pulled off 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and won UConn the championship in 2024. It has pulled off 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. He entered conference tournament week on a torrid 14-2 streak on his highest-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 streak on the highest-rated picks on the CBB side. You shouldn’t even think about making a choice without seeing what their model has to say.

Top upset picks from the March Madness 2026 bracket

One surprise from the South region that the model identified: No. 9 Iowa beats No. 8 Clemson in the first round. Iowa stumbled late, but for understandable reasons with top-10 losses to Michigan and Nebraska in its last four games, going 1-3 in that span. Iowa is 21-12 and more proven in the Big Ten than Clemson (24-10) is in the ACC. Iowa is 19-4 against unranked teams this season, and Clemson is unseeded for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Clemson is 4-6 in its last 10 games, and the program has only won one NCAA Tournament game in one of its previous seven seasons.

Another South region surprise the model identified: No. 5 Vanderbilt beats No. 4 Nebraska to advance to the Sweet 16. The model predicts these two teams will advance past their first-round matchups (Vanderbilt vs. McNeese and Nebraska vs. Troy) to meet in the second round. Vanderbilt is coming off an SEC championship game, losing to Arkansas, 86-75, on Sunday. But the Commodores beat No. 4 Florida, 91-74, in dominating fashion in the conference semifinals.

Vanderbilt won two neutral-site games in the SEC tournament and won four straight games overall and five of six heading into the SEC championship game. Meanwhile, Nebraska lost its first conference tournament game, falling to Purdue, 74-58, in the Big Ten quarterfinals. After a 20-0 start, the Cornhuskers are just 6-6 in their last 12 games. Find out what other March Madness 2026 upsets and matchups to target here.

How to Predict the 2026 NCAA Tournament Brackets

Who wins each tournament-defining match? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of making upset calls, you’ll want to see which stunners he calls this year before locking in the 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So, what is the optimal bracket for the 2026 NCAA Tournament? And which NCAA Cinderella Tournament teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth first-round upsets, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6 seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that has pulled off 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.