WBC 2026: Italy-Venezuela preview, live updates, analysis

One semi-final to go, one to go.

The United States beat the Dominican Republic 2-1 on Sunday night to return to its third consecutive World Baseball Classic final. Italy and Venezuela face off on Monday with a trip to the finals on the line. Get ready for even more action-packed baseball!

Who has the advantage in Monday night’s showdown between the red-hot teams? And what are the X-factors that will decide who advances to Tuesday’s championship? ESPN baseball experts Jorge Castillo, Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Passan weigh in before the game — and we’ll update you later with live updates from Miami as the game kicks off at 8 p.m. ET, as well as postgame takeaways.

Live updates

How excited should baseball fans be about this matchup?

Castle : Not as excited as for Sunday’s heavyweight fight between Team USA and the Dominican Republic, unless you have a deep interest. That’s not to say it won’t provide good entertainment. Italy was the big surprise of the tournament, reaching its first WBC semi-final. Venezuela, meanwhile, is a baseball powerhouse that finally made it past the quarterfinals and qualified for its first Olympics. The crowd will undoubtedly be heavily biased towards Venezuela in Miami. The atmosphere must be electric. The match just won’t be as prestigious as Sunday’s.

What is the most important thing Venezuela must do to win?

Castle : Keider Montero must give the Venezuelans some innings. Manager Omar Lopez had to turn to his bullpen sooner than he expected in the win over Japan after Ranger Suarez logged just 2⅔ innings. Six relievers held Japan scoreless. The tournament’s pitch count limitations won’t stop Lopez from using one of those relievers again against Italy, but he — and MLB pitchers’ clubs — would prefer to avoid overuse with a potential finale Tuesday.

Montero pitched three scoreless innings out of the bullpen in Venezuela’s pool victory over Nicaragua. Monday will be his first start in the competition. With an 80-pitch restriction, Lopez will look for Montero to give him at least five innings against the tournament’s second-highest scoring offense through the quarterfinals.

Gonzalez: Aaron Nola’s curveball was his signature pitch in his prime. And even if his results have deteriorated in recent years, he was a major weapon during his last start in this tournament. Nola generated seven swings and missed his curveball while tossing five scoreless innings in early pool play against Mexico, in which he allowed just five baserunners. This pitch is particularly effective against right-handed hitters, who had an expected slugging percentage of just .245 against it last season. Most of the dangerous hitters in the Venezuelan lineup – Ronald Acuna Jr., Maikel Garcia, Eugenio Suarez, Gleyber Torres, Jackson Chourio – bat right-handers.

Passan: Stop the powerful Italian offensive. From top to bottom, the Italian squad pummeled the teams in Pool B, then did the same to Puerto Rico in the quarterfinals. The idea of ​​an Italian baseball team as an offensive juggernaut remains somewhat confusing, but the bats have carried the Italians here with good reason: They’re patient, they’re powerful, they’re powerful. And no one – not even the American team which awaits the winner in the final – has stopped the Italians yet. They’re not big names. But they are young, hungry and convinced that Venezuela is just another step towards the title.

Who should shine for Venezuela in the semi-final?

Castle : Ronald Acuna Jr. provided an immediate boost against Japan with a leadoff home run on the second pitch of the game. He’s struck out three times in his last four at-bats, but he’s set the tone — and Venezuela needs him to continue to do so. Acuña is as talented as any position player in the majors. His energy is contagious. A good performance from him will make Venezuela difficult to beat.

Gonzalez: Jackson Chourio. Outside of Acuña, he is probably the most talented offensive player on this Venezuelan team. But he hasn’t done much since being hit in the left hand in Venezuela’s final exhibition game before the tournament began, going 2-for-9 with two walks and a few strikeouts. He’s one of many — along with Eugenio Suarez, Salvador Perez, William Contreras, Andres Gimenez, Gleyber Torres and others — who haven’t yet done enough offensively.

Passan: Garcia may be the most underrated player in baseball, and there’s a reason he’s No. 2 on the Venezuelan roster: He’s earned it. In this very Kansas City Royals-centric WBC – with both captains from the second semifinal game, Salvador Perez (Venezuela) and Vinnie Pasquantino (Italy) on the Royals as well as Team USA shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. – Garcia was arguably the best of the group, winning the entire tournament, including against Japan, when he hit a big home run. Another Monday would be even bigger.

What is the most important thing Italy must do to win?

Castle : Italy must continue to strike. Italy must continue to strike. Nola replicating the performance he had against Mexico (five scoreless innings), a difficult task. Japan has witnessed Venezuela’s firepower. And Italy has a few, scoring 40 points in five games and at least seven in every game. The Italians hit 12 home runs in the first four games – each time having an espresso to celebrate – but beat Puerto Rico in the quarterfinals without hitting the wall. Everything you need to keep up with the Venezuelans.

Gonzalez: Give the ball to Greg Weissert. The Boston Red Sox reliever was lights out for Italy in this tournament, recording three saves, striking out five batters and allowing no runs in 3⅓ innings. As Team USA rallied in the final round of pool play, Weissert came out of the bullpen to strike out Aaron Judge and seal an improbable victory. And as Puerto Rico rallied to the quarterfinals, Weissert recorded the final five outs of the match, propelling Italy to the semifinals. The team will need another remarkable effort from him.

Passan: Hit Venezuela on its heels early. This is what the Italian offensive did. Against the United States. Against Mexico. Against Puerto Rico. All good teams have good pitchers, and Italy – whose average age is under 24 – attacked them early. The Italian bullpen is vulnerable, as the Italian relievers also illustrated by nearly blowing some of the big leads. So, the more room the Italians can give themselves for late-round drama, the more likely they are to advance.

Who is the player who should shine for Italy in the semi-final?

Castle : Vinnie Pasquantino has four hits in this competition. Three were home runs in Italy’s pool victory over Mexico. Otherwise, the Italian captain is 1 for 16 with six walks. Italy obviously didn’t need Pasquantino to shine in most games, but he is the most accomplished hitter on this roster and teams need their best hitters to step up in the biggest games.

Gonzalez: Even though Pasquantino struggled in this tournament, Jac Caglianone, the former two-way player and No. 6 pick in the 2024 draft, surged, going 4 for 11 with two extra-base hits and, just as importantly, four walks. Italy had a lot of unlikely stars in this incredible series. But ultimately, against the best competition, it’s the two best hitters who have to set the tone.

Passan: I’m going to break the rules and pick two: With Nola starting and Michael Lorenzen expected back, the Italians are willing to use their two best pitchers in an effort to reach the final, in which case they would pitch in a complete bullpen game. Nola is by far Italy’s most pedigreed player, a high-end innings eater over the past decade who threw five shutout innings in his only WBC start. Lorenzen was arguably even better against the United States, pitching 4.2 shutout innings, and with a seven-pitch mix and a mostly right-handed Venezuela lineup, he could give Venezuela shots. The Italians are going all-in at this point, intent on reaching the final and knowing they can repeat what they’ve already done.