An entertaining World Baseball Classic comes to an end tonight from loanDepot park in Miami – the only important baseball game that stadium will host for a while – with Team USA turning to young New York Mets righty Nolan McLean in the championship game vs. Venezuela. The U.S. is -295 and the total is set at 8.5 for the 8 p.m. ET first pitch on FOX.
It’s the third straight title game for the United States, which only won the WBC in 2017 and will be the designated home team via winning a coin flip. Venezuela, which rallied to beat Italy 4-2 on Monday in the second semifinal, is in its first final.
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This event has been a fine distraction from spring training, as now the first game of the MLB regular season is only eight days away. And speaking of spring training, the Americans might have had two-time AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal available tonight had the best lefty in the majors not opted to return to Detroit camp in Lakeland, Fla., after his one pool-play start on the mound.
The 29-year-old pending free agent allowed one run across three innings in a 9-1 win over Great Britain. Skubal has been taking some heat for leaving in part because he wants to avoid injury ahead of getting perhaps the biggest free-agent contract for a starting pitcher in MLB history. So I don’t blame Skubal, but he’ll hear it if the Americans lose tonight and McLean is rocked.
Reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes started the thrilling 2-1 win over the Dominican Republic in the semifinal, allowing a solo homer among six hits with no walks and two strikeouts in 4.1 innings. I’m not sure if he’s available for an inning of relief considering he went to 71 pitches. The United States got solo home runs from Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) and Roman Anthony (Red Sox).
San Francisco Giants ace righty Logan Webb, who is 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA and .161 batting average against in this competition, should be available for multiple innings of relief considering he last pitched Friday in a quarterfinal win over Canada.
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McLean actually is my pick for NL Rookie of the Year, as the 22-year-old was terrific as a late-season call-up last year for the Mets with a 2.06 ERA and 196 ERA+ in 48 regular-season innings. The USA’s lone loss in the tournament was 8-6 to Italy last Tuesday. McLean started and struck out the side in the top of the first on 11 pitches but faded and finished by allowing three runs, two hits and two walks while striking out four over three innings. Kyle Teel and Sam Antonacci both homered off him in the second inning.
“I’m built for this. I’ve been waiting my whole life for something like this,” McLean said of starting the final. His pitch limit will be at about 70.
The entire bullpen should be available behind him. In its past two wins, Manager Mark DeRosa has used his ‘pen as such in the late innings: David Bednar in the seventh, Garrett Whitlock in the eighth and Mason Miller in the ninth. No runs were scored off that trio. Although, there is some concern about Miller’s availability tonight because he was used for six outs vs. the Dominican Republic and that’s unusual for any closer.
“I would do everything in my power to pitch,” Miller said. Team USA has not played back-to-back days in the WBC, a major edge.
Venezuela is in its first WBC final and the country has several big-leaguers on the roster led by former NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., multiple-time batting champion Luis Arraez, potential future Hall of Famer Salvador Perez, Gleyber Torres, Eugenio Suarez, Jackson Chourio and the Contreras brothers. The crowd will surely lean heavily toward Venezuela in South Florida; the park was rocking last night in that comeback win vs. the Italians. Felt like a World Cup game.
So who starts on the mound for Venezuela? Manager Omar Lopez is expected to go with Eduardo Rodriguez, who is entering his third season with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He allowed three runs over 2.2 innings against the Dominican Republic in his first WBC appearance.
Just about everyone else is available other than righty Keider Montero, as he started Monday and threw 34 pitches; the Venezuelans used seven pitchers. Tigers lefty Enmanuel De Jesus, who spent the last two years in the KBO, should also see some work. He is 2-0 in this WBC with a 1.23 ERA and .120 average against in 7.1 innings. Then I’d expect new Red Sox lefty Ranger Suarez, who is 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA (but .333 average against) in 4.2 innings over two WBC appearances.
The United States is 3-2 vs. Venezuela in this competition, with the last meeting in a 2023 quarterfinal won by the Americans in large part thanks to a go-ahead grand slam from Trea Turner, who is not on this year’s club. Aaron Judge is the current +320 favorite for tournament MVP. Acuna has the shortest odds on Venezuela at +750.
World Baseball Classic title games have been a mix of higher scoring (16 total runs scored in 2006 and eight in 2009 & ’17) and lower scoring (three runs in 2013 and five in 2023 when the Japan-USA final was also held in Miami).
Pick: Single-game parlay of Venezuela alt +3.5 and Under 10.5 at -115 via DraftKings. I expect the United States to win with the rest advantage if not the fan edge, but the Venezuelans are more than capable and I tend to think we get a lower-scoring close game. May not need +3.5 but will play it safe.
