“We clearly just kicked [Iran’s] ass in the field, but, to a large extent, they hold the cards now,” one person close to the White House told Politico. “They decide how long we’re involved—and they decide if we put boots on the ground. And it doesn’t seem to me that there’s a way around that, if we want to save face.”
At issue is whether the U.S. can obtain control over the Strait of Hormuz, the water channel situated between Iran and the United Arab Emirates. The strait is the single most important energy transit point in the world, funneling approximately one-fifth of all crude oil shipments. Iran began laying mines across the passageway last week, effectively sealing the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman to the rest of the open ocean.
Ensuring the free flow of oil through the strait would likely require seizing control of portions of Iran’s shoreline, a warplan that would almost certainly require the physical presence of U.S. troops in Iran. But doing so could put America in yet another open-ended Middle East conflict—exactly the kind that Trump has railed against for more than a decade.
