Japanese leader faces a ‘very difficult’ meeting with Trump as he presses for help with Iran

Few world leaders seem to get along as well with President Donald Trump as they do with Sanae Takaichi. But the Japanese prime minister could be put to the test when she visits the White House on Thursday, as Trump grows increasingly frustrated with the course of his war against Iran.

Takaichi, 65, will be the first leader of a major U.S. ally to meet with Trump since he demanded that a coalition of countries, including Japan, help protect the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route that Iran has effectively closed, disrupting global trade and sending energy prices skyrocketing.

Before leaving for Washington on Wednesday, Takaichi, who said Japan had no plans to send warships to escort ships through the strait, told lawmakers she expected the meeting with Trump to be “very difficult.”

“It’s hard to overestimate how high the stakes are for her,” said Jeff Kingston, a professor of Asian studies and history at Temple University’s Japan campus. “And she walks a tightrope because Japanese public opinion does not support the American war in the Middle East at all.”

Japan relies heavily on the United States as an export market and for security in an increasingly militarized region.

“Given that Japan finds itself in an increasingly risky area with nuclear saber rattling in Pyongyang and China’s regional hegemonic ambitions, it is absolutely crucial for Japan to maintain a strong alliance,” Kingston said in an interview with NBC News.

Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, got off to a good start with Trump soon after he took office in October, appearing with him as he spoke to U.S. troops on an aircraft carrier at the Yokosuka Naval Base in Japan. She also benefited from the mentorship of the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was close to Trump.

Very popular in his country, Takaichi led his Liberal Democratic Party to win a historic supermajority in the lower house of Parliament in early elections last month.

Takaichi’s three-day visit to Washington had been conveniently timed to take place before Trump’s long-planned trip to China, allowing him to be “the last voice in his ear” before his meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Kingston said. But Trump delayed his trip to China this week so he could focus on Iran, and his meeting with Takaichi now risks being dominated by the Islamic Republic.

Japan has avoided directly approving or criticizing the US-Israeli strikes against Iran that began on February 28 and has instead called for de-escalation. The conflict is highly unpopular in Japan, whose post-World War II constitution restricts the military to self-defense.

Although Takaichi, a hardline conservative, has accelerated Japan’s defense spending and wants to revise its pacifist constitution, “she will not send a Japanese warship into the Strait of Hormuz firing range” because putting Japanese troops in harm’s way could jeopardize her national security goals, Kingston said.

Instead, he said Takaichi “needs to understand, what can she do that will be enough to appease President Trump?”

It could offer help with mine clearance, Kingston said, because Japan is very concerned about the disruption of energy supplies due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has hit Asia particularly hard. Japan, which imports almost all of its crude oil from the Middle East, began releasing a record 80 million barrels of oil from state reserves on Monday, about a 45-day supply.

For Japan, the widening conflict in the Middle East is also worrying because it shifts U.S. attention away from the Indo-Pacific, where China is seen as a growing security threat by Tokyo and other U.S. allies. Some U.S. troops are being transferred from Japan to the Middle East, which normally hosts about 50,000.

Takaichi, a staunch supporter of Beijing’s claimed island of Taiwan, has been embroiled in a diplomatic row with China since November, when she told lawmakers that a Chinese attack on the self-governing democracy could prompt a military response from Tokyo. Takaichi refused to accede to China’s demands to withdraw his “egregious” statement, which was consistent with Japan’s long-standing position but unusually explicit for a sitting prime minister.

Japan on Thursday rejected the U.S. assessment that Takaichi’s remarks marked a “significant change” in policy, with the government’s top spokesperson telling reporters the remarks were “not accurate.”

Iran will also compete with Japan’s desire to discuss trade, after the US Supreme Court struck down numerous global tariffs imposed by Trump last month. Japan says it wants to maintain its existing trade deal with the United States, which sets a 15% tariff rate on most Japanese goods in exchange for a commitment from Japan to invest $550 billion in the United States.

Kingston warned that Takaichi’s meeting with Trump “could very easily turn sour” because “Trump is a moody guy and you have to catch him in a good mood.”

If anyone can pull it off, he says, it’s Takaichi, a veteran of Japan’s highly patriarchal politics who “understood how to deal with powerful men and how to get what she needs.”