What did President Trump know about Iran before going to war : NPR

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Earlier this week, President Trump said there was no way to know whether the war he started would spread as widely. Speaking to reporters, the president commented on Iran’s retaliation against its neighbors.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: So they hit Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait. Nobody expected it. We were shocked. And the other one, you know, they fought back. They could have given in.

INSKEEP: Iran did not give in, and instead the war escalated and escalated. To understand how this happened, we called Nate Swanson, who was a career government official. He was director for Iran on the National Security Council under President Biden. He later served on an Iran negotiating team under President Trump before conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer accused him of disloyalty and cost him his job. Mr. Swanson, welcome to the program.

NATE SWANSON: Thanks for having me.

INSKEEP: Let me start with what the president said earlier this week. Could anyone have predicted a major regional war? Did anyone predict a major regional war?

SWANSON: Yes. I think people could have predicted it. I’m sure members of the US government have done this. And also, I did it.

INSKEEP: Because you wrote an article about this in Foreign Affairs before the president started the war, as I understand it.

SWANSON: Yeah. That’s correct.

INSKEEP: What were your predictions as an expert about what would happen if the United States struck Iran?

SWANSON: Look, I think early in the war there was a sense that the president had defied criticism over and over again, this idea that the United States could take major action without having repercussions. Maduro, the Soleimani attack, last June’s attack on Iran’s nuclear program essentially happened without repercussions.

INSKEEP: That’s right.

SWANSON: But at the beginning of this war, you could see that the Iranians saw things differently. It was existential. They saw it coming. They see this as a continuation of the June War, and they did – I mean, they said themselves that it would be a regional war if it happened. So, I mean, there was a relatively high probability of that happening. SO…

REGISTRATION: OK. So let’s look at each side’s strategy, as you understand it. What do you think has been the Iranian strategy, step by step, over the past few weeks?

SWANSON: Yeah. I mean, really, I think a turning point for them was Bibi’s visit to Mar-a-Lago in late December, where basically, you know, there was this fragile ceasefire in place since the June War, and Bibi goes and gets permission from the president to attack Iran basically at a time and place of his choosing, you know, to target the missile program. So I think at this point Iran knows that war is coming. They know that it will be very important and that, if there is no decisive change, or a change of regime, it will happen approximately every six months. So I think at this point Iran knows it has to think big.

I mean, the Israelis – this goes back to October 7th. I think, you know, it’s a much more existential question. This has a lot to do with the idea that they will no longer accept threats. You know, they said Hamas would say these crazy things, but no one believed it. In this case, you know, so it was no longer acceptable. And Iran has been saying crazy things for 47 years about Israel, so it was no longer acceptable. So I think this is the Israeli motivation. And the United States’ motivation was that they thought it would be easy. You know, we’ve had a lot of success, so why not do it again? And in the end, this is where the main miscalculation occurred.

INSKEEP: What attitude do you think the administration has taken toward expertise like yours over the years?

SWANSON: Yeah. I mean, I don’t know. Look, it depends. You know, I mean, I think, obviously, it’s a single government. There is no normal political process. It is, you know, more top-down than any government, including the first Trump administration, than ever before. This is a unique feature. You know, that’s his prerogative, I guess. You know, I will say it’s clear that, you know, the DOD and IC analytics are coming to him. You see it because, you know, all of this was leaked to the New York Times or the Washington Post shortly afterward, but, you know, it gets to him. But at the end of the day, you know, he’s the one who makes all the decisions, and they’re Trump’s decisions. SO…

REGISTRATION: OK. Let us then think about American strategy. You say you think the initial strategy of the United States was that it would be over now. It will be easy.

SWANSON: Oh, yeah.

INSKEEP: It will be quick. Trump will have the opportunity to dictate his decision to Iran’s new leader, something he considered doing at one point. It didn’t work. The United States must adapt. Sometimes this is the case in times of war. Do you think you perceive or understand American strategy today?

SWANSON: No. I think this is changing. You know, I mean, like you said, you know, right when he announced war, it was regime change. A day later, there was the degradation of the regime, then complete capitulation. Then he wanted to choose the new supreme leader. So look, I think it changes at that point. And I can’t really tell you what the end game is right now, and I don’t know if the White House can either.

INSKEEP: Let’s talk about the events of the last 24 hours. We heard about it from Aya Batrawy. There was an Israeli strike on the Pars gas facility, which operates the world’s largest natural gas field on the northern side of the Persian Gulf. Qatar exploits this same deposit from the south, and Iran then retaliated by striking to the south. And then last night, President Trump made this statement, which I can summarize by saying: he says that the United States had nothing to do with it, that they didn’t know it. Israel did it. They won’t do it again. And Iran better not strike again, or we’ll do disastrous things. What do you think of all this?

SWANSON: I mean, it’s hard to say. I mean, I think it’s pretty important. I don’t know if it’s the president who says this to distance himself from the attack. I mean, I don’t want to – I mean, there’s no way the Israelis would carry out an attack of this magnitude without, you know, American knowledge and some level of acquiescence. So I think we can rule out this possibility. I don’t know if it’s to calm the markets, if it’s buyer’s remorse or if it signals, you know, something broader, which is, you know, its recognition that there’s no easy way out. There are no good options for ending this war, and so at some point he will simply have to force an end. So I’m not sure which one it is, and maybe it’s a combination of all of these options at this point.

REGISTRATION: OK. So let’s talk about options. Let’s say you’re still in government and you haven’t been kicked out by a conspiracy theorist, and the president calls you and says: I have this problem: the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. I have to do something. What are my options? Can you give me an option?

SWANSON: I think there are two. I think, you know – or about two. The first is the direction in which we are heading or were going yesterday, which is to redouble our efforts in the war, to invest more troops, to invest more operations. You know, there’s this rumor of sending a, you know…

INSKEEP: Ground troops of some sort, yeah.

SWANSON: …A small island that potentially – yeah, exactly – potentially take Kharg Island or whatever. So I think that’s a possibility. I mean, the other option, though, and what Iran is making clear is that it wants this war to end, but it wants it on its terms. And the conditions they want are basically to prevent this war from happening again. So they tried to put so much pressure on the United States that we will not allow Israel or the Gulf to start this war again. And so that’s what’s happening. So those are the two options.

INSKEEP: So the other option, I guess, is a lasting solution: accepting a lasting peace. Nate Swanson, resident senior fellow and director of Iran strategy at the Atlantic Council. Thank you very much for your ideas.

SWANSON: Thank you very much.

(SOUNDBITE OF LEATHER WINGS’ “THIS WILL DESTROY YOU”)

Copyright © 2026 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit the terms of use and permissions pages on our website at www.npr.org for more information.

The accuracy and availability of NPR transcripts may vary. The text of the transcript may be revised to correct errors or match updates to the audio. Audio on npr.org may be edited after its original broadcast or publication. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio recording.