MLB picks: Every team’s 2026 season win total projection, plus best bets for Cubs, Phillies, Red Sox, more
We’ve almost made it through the entire offseason, including the slog that is spring training (though the WBC always helps with said slog). Opening Day is Thursday, which means the first half of the week is about setting the table and making predictions and all of that. For gamblers, one of the most popular areas to look would be the win totals, colloquially “over/unders.” In other words, will each team’s final record for the 2026 season be over or under where the sportsbooks set the line.
Here are the listed win totals for each of the 30 teams, from most to least, via Caesars. I’ll make five picks afterward.
UNDER: Phillies 89.5 wins
The Phillies haven’t been under this mark since 2022, when they won the National League pennant after winning 87 regular-season games. This has been one of the better runs in franchise history. There is some decline potential this season, though. Zack Wheeler starts the season on the IL and there’s no guarantee he’ll be effective when he’s back. Ranger Suárez has signed elsewhere. Aaron Nola had a wretched 2025 season. All of this is to say the rotation is a major question mark. The offense starts with three stars, but past Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper we’re looking at Alec Bohm, Adolis García and Bryson Stott along with JT Realmuto and Brandon Marsh.
There are good enough pieces here for the Phillies to go over and win the World Series. More likely, they end up under and have to fight for the last wild card.
OVER: Cubs 88.5 wins
The Cubs won 92 games last year. Kyle Tucker is gone, but essentially replaced by Alex Bregman — and remember, Tucker was hurt or bad for nearly all of the last three months. There’s good talent and depth in the starting rotation with Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillion, the newly acquired Edward Cabrera, Colin Rea, Javier Assad and, returning from Tommy John surgery, Justin Steele. The bullpen will need to be figured out, but there’s a strong anchor in Daniel Palencia, fresh off closing down the WBC semis and finals.
I’ve got the Brewers taking a step back and the Cubs winning the division. If I’m right about that, it’s hard to see the Cubs winning fewer than 90 games.
UNDER: Red Sox 87.5 wins
The Red Sox won 89 games last season and this time around, they don’t have the drama they did with Rafael Devers (otherwise why’d they need to trade him?), while Roman Anthony is up full-time and the rotation is stronger now with the additions of the aforementioned Range Suárez and Sonny Gray. So why am I taking the under?
Look, the first thing is, the books and betting public are so good at placing these lines that every single one seems incredibly difficult. The margins are tiny. Secondly, I don’t really love the offense and there have to be concerns about the rotation after Garrett Crochet due to Gray’s age and Suárez’s low output (he’s still never made it to 160 innings in a season). Most importantly, however, this division is so crowded. I expect the Orioles to be much better than last year (and I’m not alone; look at their betting total above), the Rays are likely better and the Blue Jays and Yankees aren’t going anywhere. Even if the Red Sox finish in third place, it’s still a tall order to get to 88 in that spot in this division in this season.
OVER: Athletics 76.5
I’ve said it in several other places on this website but it bears repeating here: The A’s were 53-46 in their last 99 games last season. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll continue that pace in 2026, obviously, but it shows that the season-altering skid of 20 losses in 21 games wasn’t a fair illustration of this team. It is especially helpful in judging here with this team because it was such a young roster overall and was also adjusting to playing in a minor-league park.
Nick Kurtz is now getting to the stardom level and there are plenty of other big bats. The rotation of Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Aaron Civale, Jacob Lopez and Luis Morales isn’t going to be great, but it could be good enough to keep them in the playoff race. I love the Mariners this season, but I don’t particularly like either the Rangers or the Astros a ton better than the A’s. Second place seems achievable. In this bet, I only need them to win 77. They won 76 last year and, again, had a stretch where they lost 20 of 21.
OVER: Rockies 56.5 wins
Last year, the White Sox were coming off a historically bad 2024 season and every once in a while, you’d catch someone saying something like “they might be worse!” I rode the over and they hit it easily, following up their 41-win season with 60 wins. This time around, the Rockies are coming off 43 wins and they don’t seem too much better on paper. Still, it’s so ridiculously hard for actual major-league players to lose more than 106 games in a season. It almost never happens. I’m betting on things going just about how they did for the White Sox last season. Also keep in mind what an X-factor Coors Field is with all the run-scoring possibilities. They can fluke their way to wins. Even last year, they split a four-game series against the Dodgers at home.
The Rockies are still going to be one of the worst teams in baseball. Maybe even the worst. They’ll find a way to win at least 57, though.
