Iran Is Setting the Pace; Trump Is Reacting.
Beyond the bluster and carnage, let’s look at the current situation in the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. I wrote most of this article before the overnight announcement that Trump was essentially demanding peace. But all of this still applies. And it comes down to remarkable dynamics.
Although the United States dominates the skies and almost every other combat domain, Iran has seized and holds the initiative in the war itself, forcing the United States to respond and, in Trump’s hands, to do so erratically and impotently. Iran holds the strategic initiative, despite constant and incredibly damaging attacks from the United States and Israel. Indeed, getting Iran to stop its main retaliatory measure – limiting the Strait of Hormuz – now appears to be the primary US war objective. In other words, the main goal of the United States now is to get Iran to stop its retaliation against the United States’ initiation of war.
The United States was already trying to bring Iran to the negotiating table, according to this report published last night by Axios. The fact that the United States is apparently considering how to “condition” cash payments to Iran (i.e., release frozen assets) demonstrates how far we are from “unconditional surrender.” Meanwhile, reports this morning confirm that the United States has entered into negotiations, or at least hopes to do so. Of course, the easiest way to get Iran to liberate the strait is to stop the war. But the United States cannot do this, at least not openly, because that would amount to a massive and humiliating defeat.
