Why Trump may be eyeing Iran’s Kharg Island — and why that’s a risk

The president is “leaving all options on the table,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “What could happen with Kharg Island? We’ll see.”

The United States has already bombed more than 90 targets on Kharg, including air defenses, a naval base and mine storage facilities, Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a news conference.

It was not made clear why exactly U.S. forces are moving toward the region. They could be used to secure the Strait of Hormuz, blockade – rather than invade – the island of Kharg, or simply continue and assist operations carried out by personnel and assets already present.

But a land invasion would be much riskier, according to some expert observers.

“Trump would be betting that the remaining Iranian leaders, facing a loss of tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue, would capitulate,” according to Christian Emery, an associate professor specializing in U.S.-Iran relations at University College London.

But “military success is by no means guaranteed,” he added, with the “real risk that this degenerates into a much more dangerous situation.”

The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment on concerns about a ground invasion.

What is Kharg Island?

Because most of Iran’s coastline is too shallow for supertankers, the country pumps almost all of its crude production through undersea pipelines to Kharg.

Once used by the Iranian monarchy to exile political prisoners, this rock is deceptively fertile on the ground.

Last year, a short film made by regime-controlled Press TV showed groves of palm trees growing among freshwater springs, a rarity in the Gulf islands.

Archaeological sites include 2,400-year-old wall carvings and rock-cut tombs, as well as an 18th-century fort built by the Dutch East India Company.

In the 1950s, the island was transformed into a vast oil facility that exists today. It is home to at least 8,000 residents, many of whom are oil workers.

Access is restricted, earning it the nickname “Forbidden Island,” but satellite and aerial images show rows of oil storage tanks, flames shooting from flares, a network of pipelines and vast jetties that allow supertankers to transport oil around the world, primarily to China.

“Kharg Island is a lifeline for the Iranian economy,” said Dania Thafer, executive director of the Gulf International Forum, a Washington, DC-based think tank. Tehran “would risk a strong escalation” if the island was attacked, she said. strikes against US forces and Gulf energy infrastructure.

Trump himself has downplayed Iran’s potential defenses. “I call it ‘the little oil island’ that sits there, totally unprotected,” he said last week.

He had plans on this since at least 1988, when he told The Guardian newspaper: “I would do an issue on Kharg Island; I would go in and take it” if Iran fired on American troops or ships. Trump noted in the interview that taking the island would be a way to pressure Iran.

At the time Trump made these comments, maritime traffic was disrupted in the Persian Gulf. During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, dozens of merchant ships were attacked by both sides in what became widely known as the “Tanker War.”

Whatever Trump’s intention, what is clear is that additional U.S. personnel are heading to the region. This includes 1,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division and 5,000 Marines.

Leading Marines into the Gulf from the Philippine Sea is the USS Tripoli, an amphibious assault ship that could prove useful in any attack on Kharg.

This did not go unnoticed.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Wednesday that his country was “closely monitoring all US movements in the region, especially troop deployments.”

He warned of X: “Do not test our resolve to defend our land. »

Russia, Iran’s ally which provided intelligence during the war, hopes that the idea of ​​a ground invasion “will not go beyond words and threats”, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday.

Some analysts are optimistic.

“I believe this force is capable of taking the island given the significant air and naval power we already have deployed in the region,” said Francis A. Galgano, a former Army lieutenant colonel and now a professor of military geography at Villanova University.

“If the plan is to win a war against Iran, then the capture of Kharg Island should be one of the central missions of the conflict,” he added. “This gives the United States enormous leverage in all negotiations and is a ‘stick’ to force the Iranians to stop attacking shipping.”

Others aren’t so sure.

A senior official from a Persian Gulf country, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive issues, said Iran was “not yet weak enough” for the United States to take Kharg.

“I believe the president is thinking about it,” but “personally, I don’t think the time is right yet,” the official said. “Iran still has tools that allow it to make a US occupation force very risky.”

For the moment, “the regime is definitely not crumbling,” added the official. “It’s weaker, but it doesn’t crack.”

Others are even less optimistic.

Kharg Island is less than 20 miles from the mainland, well within range of rockets, artillery and drones, according to Emery of University College London. It is also hundreds of miles inside the Persian Gulf, meaning any U.S. force would take at least a day to reach it and “give Iran time to exploit the surrounding waters and prepare its defenses,” he said.

Even if the United States captured the island, “maintaining the position would be extremely difficult, with resupply operations exposed to persistent drone, missile and artillery fire,” he said. Ultimately, he believes, it would be “an absolutely disastrous decision that would drag out the conflict for several months.”