Musk bets cabs will give Tesla a lift after boycotts, sales plunge

New York – Elon Musk promised in 2019 that Tesla “Robotaxis” without driver would be on the road “next year”, but that did not happen. A year later, he promised to deliver them next year, but it did not happen either.

Despite empty promises, the promises continued to come. Last year in January, Musk said: “Next year we will have more than a million robotaxis.”

Would you like to be satisfied with 10 or 12?

Musk seems to be about to make his Robotaxi vision a reality with a test of a small autonomous taxi team in Austin, Texas, from Sunday. Reaching one million can take a year or more, however, although the billionaire can be able to extend the service this year if Austin’s demo is a success.

The stakes could not be higher, nor the challenges.

While Musk made these promises “next year”, his rival Waymo was busy deploying driverless taxis in Los Angeles, San Diego, Austin and other cities using different technology that allowed him to market more quickly. He has just finished his 10 millionth paid journey.

The boycotts linked to Musk’s policy have landed Tesla sales. Manufacturers of rival electric vehicles with newly competitive models have stolen a market share. And investors are in advance after erasure of actions of $ 150 billion when Musk chose a fight on social networks with an American president supervising federal car regulators who could make the deployment of robotaxis much more difficult. The stock restricted somewhat after Musk said he regretted some of his remarks.

Tesla shareholders have supported Musk over the years because he has challenged the chances by creating a successful autonomous electric vehicle company – the autonomous car promises – and making them a lot of money in the process. Tesla’s shares were negotiated for about $ 18. The actions ended on Friday at $ 322.

Musk says that the Austin test will start slightly, with only 10 or 12 vehicles picking up passengers in a limited area. But then, it will meet quickly and propagate to other cities, finally reaching hundreds of thousands if not a million vehicles next year.

Some musc observers at Wall Street are skeptical.

“How much can the fleet extend?” Application Garrett Nelson, analyst at CFRA. “We may speak a dozen vehicles at the start. It’s very small.”

Seth Goldstein by Morningstar says that Musk is a classic musk: promise too quickly, too quickly.

“When someone in Austin can download the application and use a Robotaxi, it will be a success, but I don’t think it will happen before 2028,” he said. “The tests will take a while.”

Musk’s trend to raise stocks with a little hyperbola is well known among investors.

In 2018, he told Tesla shareholders that he had “obtained funding” to buy all their actions at a massive bonus and put the private company. But there was not only a written commitment on the part of the financiers, according to the regulators of the federal actions who inflicted it on a fine, he had not discussed the amount of the loan or other details with them.

More recently, Musk told CNBC in May that Tesla knew a “major rebound” in demand. A week later, an automotive trade group in Europe announced that sales had half dived.

Musk was criticized for having allegedly exaggerated the capacity of the system used for his cars to drive themselves, starting with the name. Complete self-limited is an unfit term. The system always requires drivers to keep their eyes on the road because they may need to intervene and take control at any time.

The federal road safety regulators opened an investigation into the FSD last year after several accidents, and the Ministry of Justice conducted its own investigation, although the status is not known. Tesla has also faced prosecution on functionality, some leading to regulations, others rejected. In one case, a judge ruled against the complainants, but only because they had not proven that Musk “knowingly” made false declarations.

Musk says that robotaxis will operate on an improved version of the full self-control and that taxis will be safe.

He also says that the service will be able to develop rapidly across the country. Its secret weapon: millions of owners of Tesla now on the roads. He says that a live software update will soon allow them to transform their cars into a driverless taxis and start a parallel business while being stuck in the office for eight hours or on vacation for a week.

“Instead of sitting your car in the parking lot, your car could earn money,” said Musk earlier this year, calling it an Airbnb model for cars. “You can add or subtract your car from the fleet.”

Musk says Tesla can also move quickly to deploy taxis now because of her decision to trust only the cameras so that cars can navigate, unlike Waymo, which has taken a more expensive route by completing its cameras with lasers and a radar.

“Tesla will have, I don’t know,” Musk thought at a conference call for investors “, a 99% market share or something ridiculous.” Since Waymo Start and the potential competition from Amazon and others, dominating the driver -free market to this extent could be a range.

But Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst and Big Musk fan, says that this time Musk can really realize it due to Tesla’s ability to develop rapidly. And even skeptics like Goldstein of Morningstar recognize that Musk sometimes does things correctly, and spectacularly.

He upset the automotive industry by bringing people to buy expensive electric vehicles, brought his internet service by Satellite Starlink in rural areas and, more recently, made a gee-white tip to win an unmanned SpaceX rocket on a platform on earth.

“Maybe his deadlines are not realistic,” says Goldstein, “but he can develop futuristic technological products.”