Geneva watch fair set to show war’s effect on luxury sector

The Geneva watch fair opens on Tuesday and will serve as a barometer of the impact of the war in the Middle East on the luxury sector.

Watches and Wonders, the industry’s largest annual event, sees 65 major watch brands, including Rolex, Patek Philippe, Cartier and Bulgari, showcase their latest creations until April 20.

Despite uncertainties surrounding travel from the Middle East and Asia, organizers expect around 60,000 visitors this week, up from 55,000 last year.

“The war is going to be a big talking point,” said Jon Cox, industry analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux Financial Services.

Before the conflict erupted on February 28 with the first American and Israeli strikes against Iran, Cox predicted a rebound in Swiss watch exports in 2026, counting on “mid-single digit growth” of around 5%, he told AFP.

But the uncertainties triggered by the conflict now risk placing the Swiss watch industry facing “low growth” in exports, he said.

Jean-Philippe Bertschy, an analyst at Vontobel, predicted growth of 4% at the start of the year, but now leans “more towards stagnation”, adding that he would revise his estimates for 2026 after assessing the mood at Watches and Wonders.

The Middle East represents just under 10 percent of the watch market.

This “is not trivial”, Bertschy explained to AFP, especially since the region has experienced “strong growth in recent years”, with a particular craze for complex high-end watches.

But the impact of the war on consumer spending and tourism remains uncertain.

It is “extremely difficult” to make forecasts in the current climate, Bertschy said, adding that the watch show was a way to “take the temperature” of the industry.

– Attract young buyers –

With the disappearance of the Baselworld show following the Covid-19 pandemic, Watches and Wonders in Geneva has established itself as the essential showcase for watchmaking in Switzerland.

In less than five years, the number of exhibitors has almost doubled, say the organizers, with the 2026 edition welcoming 11 new brands, including Audemars Piguet, one of the most sought after by collectors.

Formerly reserved exclusively for industry professionals, the Geneva show has gradually opened its doors to the public, transforming itself into a showcase platform for watchmaking know-how.

While the first four days are reserved for the industry, the weekend and Monday are open to the public, with organizers looking to appeal to a new generation of young buyers.

Organizers noted that last year, a quarter of tickets were sold to under-25s.

Watchmaking is Switzerland’s third largest export sector, after pharmaceuticals and industry.

In 2025, the sector’s workforce in Switzerland decreased for the first time since the Covid crisis, falling by 1.3% to 64,807 people, according to the Employers’ Association of the Swiss Watch Industry.

The sector took a hit during the pandemic but quickly bounced back afterward, breaking records for three consecutive years thanks to so-called “revenge buying”, with some consumers using savings made during lockdowns to stock up on luxury watches.

But with a drop in demand in China, followed by the US tariff blitz, the last two years have been difficult for the sector.

Swiss watch exports first fell by 2.8 percent in 2024, then by 1.7 percent in 2025, to reach 25.6 billion Swiss francs ($32.5 billion).

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