Virginia’s redistricting referendum no slam dunk for Democrats, despite millions spent

The fight over Virginia’s redistricting, which will end in Tuesday’s special election, remains a cliffhanger despite Democrats outspending Republicans by tens of millions of dollars to support the referendum.

Polls and tallies of early and absentee votes show a narrowly divided electorate when it comes to support for redrawing state congressional lines in favor of Democrats.

Republican turnout in precincts had produced 565,062 votes as of Thursday, compared to 534,586 ballots cast in Democratic-leaning precincts.

Both parties have invested tens of millions of dollars in advertising ahead of the special election, but Democrats have outspent the Republican Party by far as they seek voter approval to reserve additional seats in the House of Representatives that could help their party regain the House majority in November’s midterm elections.

According to analytics firm AdImpact, redistricting supporters, primarily funded by dark money groups that are not required to disclose their donors, spent $50.5 million on advertising in support of redistricting.

For comparison, anti-redistricting advertising, some of which is also funded by dark money groups, totaled $19.6 million.

AdImpact officials said the $70.1 million spent so far on advertising makes it the third most expensive non-presidential campaign in Virginia history.

The stakes couldn’t be higher for both sides.

If voters approve the new congressional map, it will erase four of Virginia’s five congressional districts now held by Republicans and could help erase the GOP’s two-seat majority in the House in November.

Virginia’s six Democratic-held districts and five Republican-held districts would be erased and replaced with 10 Democratic-leaning congressional districts and just one district likely to elect a Republican.

It can only pass if voters approve a constitutional amendment in the special election.

The state’s mid-year redistricting battle is a sharp turnaround from the recent creation of the bipartisan Virginia Redistricting Commission. In an overwhelming bipartisan vote in 2019, the General Assembly decided to amend the state Constitution to put the work of mapping in the hands of a commission. Virginia voters approved the change in November 2020.

Previously, the Legislature drew new district maps and approved them through the normal legislative process.

The ballot question is intended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily redraw new congressional districts “to restore fairness in future elections.” The amendment would return Virginia to the standard redistricting process every decade after the 2030 census.

Redistricting supporters hope that anti-Trump angst will push voters to the polls in districts with large Democratic majorities. The main Democratic group supporting redistricting, Virginians for Fair Elections, has raised about $64 million through April 10, compared to $20 million raised by the GOP group, Virginia for Fair Maps. Most of the money came from out of state.

Most of the money for redistricting, totaling more than $38 million, came from House Majority Forward, the issue advocacy arm of House Democrats’ super PAC.

Virginia’s money for Fair Maps came mostly from individual donors, with a few big spenders, among them the Republican advocacy group American Potential, which donated $250,000.

Leading Democrats and Republicans, including President Mike Johnson, Republican of Louisiana, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democrat of New York, stormed into Virginia to rally their respective voters.

The Democratic National Committee released an ad days before the special election featuring former President Barack Obama, who urged Democratic voters to go to the polls.

“By voting yes, you can prevent Republicans from giving themselves an unfair advantage in the midterms,” Mr. Obama said.

Despite a major spending advantage, Democrats hold only a very small advantage in the race, according to a Quantum Insights poll released Thursday. It found that redistricting was supported by 51.2% of supporters and opposed by 46.9%. When voters were told “more explicitly” that the amendment would create 10 Democratic-leaning districts and 1 Republican district, support fell to 49.6% and opposition increased to 47.3%.

Virginia is part of a multi-state redistricting fight sparked last year when Texas Republicans, at the urging of President Trump, voted to redraw their state’s legislative map to give the GOP five new House seats.

Republicans have gained a three-seat advantage in redistricting that has taken place so far in California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and Utah, according to Ballotpedia, which is counting the redistricting fight. Redistricting efforts in Georgia, New York and Louisiana remain subject to litigation and court rulings.

The fight to gain the upper hand on redistricting won’t end Tuesday.

Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has called the state legislature into a special session beginning April 28. Mr. DeSantis will ask Florida’s GOP-led House and Senate to consider a handful of measures, among them a proposed map that redraws the boundaries of congressional districts in the state to give the GOP additional seats in the House.