Selective reuse of prior ensemble data improves the latest air temperature forecast over North America

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 123, Issue 15, April 2026. <br/>SignificanceSubseasonal to seasonal (S2S) weather prediction—spanning the critical range of 2 to 5 wk—remains one of the hardest problems in atmospheric science. Forecast skill often collapses at these lead times because initial atmospheric information …