DeSantis’ new map for Florida seeks to give the GOP 4 more House seats : NPR

JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is pushing his state to join the national redistricting battle that President Trump launched last year. DeSantis introduced a new congressional map that could cost Republicans up to four additional congressional seats. NPR political correspondent Ashley Lopez is here to tell us about it. Hey.

ASHLEY LOPEZ, BYLINE: Hi.

SUMMERS: So, Ashley, what do we know so far about Florida’s proposed map?

LOPEZ: Yeah. So this is a map that was first given to Fox News, and if it passes, it would appear that there would be 24 congressional districts favoring the Republicans versus four favoring the Democrats. The current lineup is 20-8, which could give Republicans about four additional seats in Congress. But to do that, lawmakers would make some fairly safe seats much less safe as a potentially bruising midterm for Republicans approaches. A gain of four could therefore be optimistic.

SUMMERS: But hasn’t the state of Florida been trending Republican in recent years?

LOPEZ: Yeah. That’s true, but looking at how the special elections have gone so far, the landscape doesn’t look good for Republicans. Even in Florida, the party recently lost a few seats in the state legislature, including in a district that encompasses Mar-a-Lago. So, as you can imagine, some Republicans in the state are nervous about sharing safe seats.

SUMMERS: Okay. So, given the risks for the Republicans, is there a chance that this won’t go through, that this won’t happen?

LOPEZ: Yeah, there is. And the experts I spoke with say that’s a pretty risky proposition for Republicans. Rob Mellen Jr. is a professor of government at the University of South Florida, and he told me he thinks it’s 50-50 if this gets approved.

ROB MELLEN JR: From the legislators I’ve looked at – their comments and what they’ve said – they’re a little wary of this because they know it could come back to bite them.

LOPEZ: And I should note that all of this was driven by the governor, not the Legislature. And Ron DeSantis is term limited, so his political capital is kind of on the wane right now, and that’s important because lawmakers may feel less pressure to pass this bill than they might have a few years ago.

SUMMERS: Okay. So suppose Republican lawmakers accept this map, and then it passes, which party would lead in national redistricting?

LOPEZ: So with the passage of the ballot measures in Virginia last week, that – assuming Republicans pick up four seats in Florida – would leave things very tight. There might be a slight advantage for the Republicans. One of the few wild cards here, however, is that the Virginia Supreme Court is currently considering a legal challenge to the states’ efforts. It is therefore possible that these new districts will not come into force.

SUMMERS: The effort in Virginia was approved by voters there. That’s not the case in Florida, is it?

LOPEZ: Yeah. That’s correct. Only Virginia and California, the two Democratic-led states, got voter approval first, mainly because they have redistricting commissions in their constitutions, while all those Republican states like Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio did not have to get voter input first. So while Florida legislators will decide for themselves, I have to say that Florida has banned partisan redistricting in its constitution. In 2010, voters overwhelmingly approved a ballot measure that prohibits gerrymandering and favoring — which favors one party or disadvantages an incumbent party. But Gov. DeSantis sidestepped that issue by saying it wasn’t a partisan gain. He says it’s an effort to address demographic changes in Florida lately.

SUMMERS: How quickly could lawmakers make a decision on these new maps?

LOPEZ: Well, it could happen very quickly. The governor has called a special session that begins tomorrow and ends at the end of the week. I mentioned that there are a few contingencies, and one of them is that the Supreme Court may soon issue its ruling on the Voting Rights Act, which could trigger a series of redistricting efforts, primarily in the South. But the closer we get to the primary elections, the less likely it is that states will redraw lots before the midterm elections.

SUMMERS: NPR’s Ashley Lopez. THANKS.

LOPEZ: Thank you.

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