As gas prices squeeze voters, Republican midterm challenges deepen
When Donald Trump ran for president in 2024, he promised to bring the price of gasoline below $2 per gallon “within 12 months.” This looked good to an electorate unhappy with the high cost of living; Mr. Trump secured his second term in the White House, propelled by double-digit advantages on the economy, inflation and energy prices.
A year and a half later, with the United States at war with Iran, those one-time benefits look like potential liabilities as voters express growing discontent with high prices in the run-up to the fall midterm elections.
Oil and gas prices rose to their highest levels since 2022, with the average cost of a gallon of gasoline hitting $4.30 on Thursday. This week alone, gasoline jumped 72 cents per gallon in Michigan and 60 cents per gallon in Ohio, two states with key Senate and House elections. Nationally, polls show Mr. Trump’s approval rating has fallen below 40%, with the cost of living a top concern for voters, who now say they trust Democrats more than Republicans on the economy for the first time since 2010.
Why we wrote this
High prices at the pump hit many Americans’ wallets directly and lead to other costs. Some Republican strategists worry that even if the war in Iran ends soon, voters won’t feel an improvement in their finances until after the midterm elections.
“U.S. consumers perceive the economy has not improved and inflation has gotten worse,” said conservative pollster Whit Ayres. “This is a problem when we promise to reduce inflation and revive the economy.”
Midterm elections are usually a referendum on which party is in power, especially when the president’s party holds both houses of Congress. And gas prices – a visible and direct expense for most Americans, as well as a driver of other costs – are a “very big concern” for 78% of voters, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll. This creates an increasingly difficult electoral landscape for Republicans, who currently hold slim majorities in the House and Senate.
“At the end of the day, people only care about what happens in their own pocketbooks,” says Republican strategist Maura Gillespie. Even if the war ends in the coming weeks and energy prices begin to fall, she notes, it may be some time before the recovery is felt in household finances. “The mood may already be so bad that they can’t necessarily recover from it in time,” she says.
Political winds and gas prices
Presidents have long viewed their political fortunes as directly tied to the cost of fuel, even when it is beyond their control. On several occasions, some have resorted to short-term solutions, such as releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to try to mitigate the price surge. But longer-term oil crises can be politically devastating, as Democrats saw with Jimmy Carter and the oil crisis of the 1970s.
Although the price of oil has risen over the past two months as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and the United States imposed its own blockade, it has also fluctuated wildly.
U.S. Energy Information Administration
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Jacob Turcotte/Staff
“A lot of it depends on people’s hopes and fears,” says Robert Kleinberg, an associate senior fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “Every time a ceasefire is announced, the price of oil goes down; a ceasefire is canceled, the price of oil goes up.”
Mr. Trump’s own MAGA coalition has been unusually divided on the war, with many prominent conservative commentators sharply criticizing the president for abandoning his promise not to involve the United States in costly foreign entanglements.
Ms. Gillespie isn’t worried about losing Republican voters outright, but she says some might choose to stay home in November. And she worries that independent voters who supported Mr. Trump last time, largely because they thought he would boost the economy, could end up turning against the Republican Party.
“I think they will be motivated to vote against the Republicans,” she said, “because of what they see as a bait and switch.”
Independent voter Mark Tepper, a technology salesman from Nashua, New Hampshire, voted for Mr. Trump in the last election and says he will likely vote for the Republican again in the fall. But he wants the war to end soon: “I hope President Trump will finish the job with Iran and not give them the opportunity to drag this out any longer.” »
For now, he’s adjusting his driving schedule to be more profitable. When I’m on the go, “I try to do as many tasks as possible so I don’t have to go out a second or third time,” he says via text message.
Democrats see an opportunity to portray Republicans as out of touch with the concerns of ordinary Americans. As voters struggle to fuel up and make ends meet, they say, the president is building a $400 million ballroom and reaching out to billionaire donors.
“There are central issues that all Democrats agree on, from housing to health care to energy, all of which stem from affordability,” says Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright. “[Republicans’] the crisis is our opportunity.
At a hearing on Capitol Hill earlier this week, Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander of New Hampshire asked Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directly if he knew what the average cost of gas was on Feb. 28, the day the United States began bombing Iran.
“It depends on where you live,” Mr. Hegseth replied. “If you live in California, it’s eight dollars.”
“$2.83,” Ms. Goodlander replied. “Do you know what the average cost of a gallon of gasoline is today? »
“Much higher in California,” he said.
“$4.23,” she continued. “I have to say, Mr. Hegseth, you said you have a top economic team studying the impacts of this war on the American taxpayer – and you can’t answer that basic question?
Same pump, much higher prices
Some Trump voters, frustrated by rising fuel prices, say they are willing to give the president some leeway — for now.
Patrik Jonsson/The Christian Science Monitor
Eddie Perry remembers the price of gasoline when he first worked as a gas station attendant in 1969: 18 cents a gallon. That job later turned into a career as a gas station owner.
On Tuesday, at the same pump that Mr. Perry, now retired, once owned on Wilmington Island, Ga., it cost him more than $100 to fill up his Chevrolet truck.
“Well, I’m angry about that,” he said.
However, he does not blame the president. “I feel like President Trump is doing the best he can in the situation,” Mr. Perry said. “Because of his stubbornness, we could end up in a protracted war. But if we do, then we do.”
For other Trump voters, there may be a limit to their patience.
Harris, a Wilmington Island entrepreneur who asks not to use his last name because he does not want his business associated with politics, says he voted for Mr. Trump in the last three elections largely because of his dislike of Democrats’ “woke politics.”
He knows that political parties use gas prices as a cudgel, recalling stickers a few years ago that appeared on former President Joe Biden’s gas pumps designating the price window with the caption “I Did This.”
Because he feels more culturally aligned with Republicans than Democrats, he is willing to take on today’s prices — but only up to a point.
“Unless it gets too big,” he says. For now, he thinks he’ll just have to keep “making do.”
