Brazil’s beef exports could drop 10% in 2026 due to Chinese tariffs, says lobby ABIEC

SAO PAULO, May 5 (Reuters) – Brazilian beef exports could fall by 10% in 2026 from the previous year due to China’s 55% tariffs on beef imports that exceed quota levels, the president of lobby group ABIEC, Roberto Perosa, said on Tuesday.

Speaking to reporters, Perosa also said the country’s beef production destined for China is expected to stop around June, noting that domestic consumption would need to increase to cover the volumes that will no longer be shipped to the Asian country.

China, which is Brazil’s largest trading partner and the top destination for Brazilian beef, imposed the tariffs this year in a bid to protect its domestic beef industry.

The annual quota level for Brazilian beef imports – 1.1 million tonnes – is lower than the 1.7 million tonnes shipped to China last year, almost half of the country’s total beef exports, according to ABIEC data.

This year’s quota is already filled, with companies rushing to ship beef to China without the prohibitive tax. The volume also includes beef shipped at the end of 2025 and entering China at the beginning of 2026.

“No market can replace China,” Perosa said, adding that he remained optimistic about eventually allowing exports to Japan, another destination that could help mitigate the “decline in shipments to China.”

ABIEC had a more optimistic outlook at the start of the year, forecasting relative stability in exports, based on the potential opening of markets and the redirection of sales to other destinations.

The group represents major Brazilian meatpackers such as JBS, MBRF and Minerva.

(Reporting by Roberto Samora; writing by Fernando Cardoso, editing by Franklin Paul and Chizu Nomiyama)