2026 Preakness Stakes: How the race will play out, who will benefit

If you came to this page to learn about the Preakness Stakes – its rich history, Black-Eyed Susans, its temporary home at Laurel Park this year, Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo not racing, Brittany Russell seeking to become the first woman to train a Preakness Stakes winner – then this story is not for you. This has all been covered. Let Google be your friend.

Instead, this story will take a deep dive into this year’s Preakness Stakes from a handicapping perspective, analyzing how they will be run and who has the best chance of winning.

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A need for speed

The Preakness Stakes field is full of horses who want to be on or near the pace. Of the 14 horses present, 10 were either in the lead or within 1 ¾ lengths of the lead at the first call of their most recent race. For comparison, this year’s Kentucky Derby field of 18 also had 10 horses leading or within 1 ¾ lengths of the lead at the first call of their most recent race. The result? An incendiary collapse of pace in which the first four were last, fourth, penultimate and 10th at the first call.

Additionally, the Preakness horses with the earliest speed are pulled on the rail (No. 1 Taj Mahal) or outside (No. 9 Iron Honor and No. 10 Napoleon Solo). When speed horses are at the ends of a gate, this accelerates the initial pace even more because these jockeys must send from the bell or risk being trapped inside or wide.

If any race is primed for a collapse in pace, it’s the 2026 Preakness Stakes.

1 Taj Mahal | 2 Ocelli | 3 Dealer | 4 Robusta | 5 Talk | 6 Chip Honcho | 7 The Hell We Made | 8 Bull by the horns | 9 Iron Honor | 10 Napoleon Solo | 11 Golden Crown | 12Incredibolt | 13 Great White | 14 Pretty Boy Miah

The curious case of the Taj Mahal

The most interesting horse in the race is local hope Taj Mahal. He’s a perfect 3-for-3, with all three starting at Laurel Park. He’s coming off his most eye-catching victory to date, an 8 ¼-length run in the Federico Tesio Stakes, which gave him a solid Beyer speed figure of 92. Like most of the other horses in the field, he does his best running on the front; he won his last two starts in gate-to-wire fashion.

But three factors work against him. First, he has never competed in a fast race. In his three starts, the fastest half-mile time was 47.72 seconds, and this came in a six-furlong sprint. In his last start, he covered the first six furlongs in a slow time of 1:14.30 seconds. In contrast, Napoleon Solo clocked 44.24 and 1:07.88 last year in winning the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes. Although the Champagne is a kilometer and a meter shorter than the last Taj Mahal race, the time difference is striking. The Taj Mahal will most likely witness a pace scenario on Saturday that it has never seen before.

Second, the No. 1 position really forces jockey Sheldon Russell’s hand. From the rail and with all the speed to his outside, Russell must either send the Taj Mahal from the start and hope to get past without expending too much energy, which is easier said or done, or try to engineer a trip behind and between the other speed horses, which the horse has never done before. This is also not the optimal scenario.

And ultimately, this is not the kind of race that trainer Brittany Russell wins. Over the past five years, she has gone 0 out of 32 on graded stakes dirt roads.

If the pacing scenario plays out as planned, Taj Mahal will have to run like it has never done before to win.

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Most likely winners

As the Kentucky Derby result showed, horses that have shown an ability to break away from speed benefit from a collapse in pace, especially if they have proven they can outrun horses. For the Preakness Stakes, there are four of these horses:

12Incredibolt (5-1)
He always comes to the end. In all but one of his six career starts, Incredibolt has outpaced horses down the stretch. The only race he did not compete in was his no-show in the Holy Bull Stakes, which came after a three-month layoff.

The collapse in pace in the Kentucky Derby should have worked in his favor, but he didn’t show the same late kick he had in his Virginia Derby victory and could only rally to sixth place. Maybe Incredibolt’s kick was blunted because he was a little too close to those fast splits (he was within 8 lengths after a quarter mile), or maybe he wasn’t 100% fit since he hadn’t run in seven weeks.

But that proven connection should be there in the end. That’s how Michelle Yu and I see it.

Get the complete Preakness Stakes betting strategy from Menez at SportsLine. Check out Yu’s complete Preakness Stakes betting strategy at SportsLine.

2 Ocelli (6-1)
Coached by Whit Beckman, Ocelli turned in his two career-best efforts since transitioning from a stalker to a late closer two starts ago. Critics say he benefited from dips in pace in each of those two races, the Wood Memorial and the Kentucky Derby. But won’t he experience a new rhythm crisis on Saturday?

He was 12 lengths off the pace in the Kentucky Derby before beginning his rally around the far turn, and if jockey Tyler Gaffalione had timed his move a little better, Ocelli could arguably be the Kentucky Derby winner. Don’t be surprised if he is the winner of the Preakness Stakes.

Find Demling’s complete Preakness Stakes betting strategy at SportsLine.

7The Hell We Made (15-1)
Lexington Stakes runner-up The Hell We Did is more of a middle-of-the-pack runner than a closer like the top two. But he won’t be in the lead at all on Saturday and has proven he can overtake horses. Two starts ago he was 9 lengths off the lead in a six-furlong race and stormed home to win by 13 lengths.

On Saturday he will extend another meter, but his half-brother, Senor Buscador, has been the rally’s elite from the clouds. This is how he won the Saudi Arabian Cup, worth $20 million, in 2024.

8 Built by the Horns (30-1)
There is a fine line between a horse that is proven and a horse that is just plain slow. Built by the Horns could certainly be the latter; in five career starts, his best Beyer speed figure is 70, 10 points slower than the next slowest horse in the Preakness.

But door closer speed figures can often be misleading because they are rate dependent. A slow pace will never give a fast speed for a rapprochement. Golden Tempo’s speed figures before the Derby are a great example of this.

In his final race, Built by the Horns was last, almost 10 lengths behind the leaders, before rounding the far bend to win by half a length. Although this effort was made on a synthetic surface, his sire, Essential Quality, was more successful in producing runners on dirt than on synthetic.

At 30-1, he’s worth a look.