Trump presents a midterm dilemma for Republicans: From the Politics Desk

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In today’s edition, Jonathan Allen explores the delicate balance Republicans are trying to strike in the midterm elections. Additionally, Sahil Kapur examines how Democrats have adopted a more confrontational attitude toward the GOP over time.

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—Adam Wollner

Trump poses midterm dilemma for Republicans

Analysis by Jonathan Allen

With that, the President Donald Trump and Democratic leaders appear to agree: The midterm elections will be a referendum on his performance in office.

“I’m on the ballot and my voters love me,” Trump recently told NBC News, metaphorically referring to the shadow he promises to cast when voters go to the polls this fall.

That puts pressure on congressional Republicans, who are trying to maintain their narrow majorities in the House and Senate. Trump’s approval ratings have plummeted Paul Skenes “Splinker” because Americans are unhappy with the economy and the war with Iran.

The fear of Republican candidates in swing districts and states is that they can’t win with Trump and they can’t win without him. They want his support, his money and, at least in some cases, his physical presence during the election campaign. They need him to energize base GOP voters, but they know he’s turning off the crucial set of independent voters.

The dynamic is not new: popular presidents are traditionally in high demand on the campaign trail; unpopular presidents must choose their place. In 2006, President George W. Bushlike Trump, had an approval rating below 40 percent and had deployed troops overseas for a war in the Middle East that many Americans came to view as counterproductive to U.S. interests.

Bush raised money for the Republican Party, but was treated as a pariah in swing districts and states. The Republicans lost both houses of Congress. In 2014, the president Barack Obama and the Democrats followed a similar path, getting crushed in the midterms.

Partly because of the lessons of these election cycles, partly because Republicans fear antagonizing Trump and, to a larger extent, because hiding him won’t be damage control, the party’s candidates in close races this year may be more willing to tap the president to make campaign visits.

“The thinking has evolved over time,” said a GOP consultant. “The math is that he’s essential for basic motivation and you’re going to be accused of being too close to him anyway.”

But decisions will “depend on the district,” said a second Republican consultant who agrees with the first that political wisdom about the risks and benefits of presidential visits has changed. The second consultant said it makes sense for Trump to deploy in any district or state that leans Republican or is a pure swing. On the other hand, this person said, it would be a mistake to send Trump into battlegrounds where Democrats have the advantage.

Republican officials say Trump will be active on the campaign trail. If his approval ratings don’t improve, Democrats might be willing to pay for his trip.

Read more about Trump’s role in the midterms →

Seven years after Biden predicted a Republican Party ‘revelation’ about Trump, Democrats are moving on

By Sahil Kapur

Seven years ago, on the campaign trail in New Hampshire, Joe Biden boldly proclaimed that Republicans would have a “revelation” after losing the 2020 election: They would vacate the office of president. Donald Trump and work cooperatively with Democrats.

Many Democrats then joined it. But after Trump returned to the White House with a popular vote and electoral college victory four years later, Democratic voters are abandoning that vision in favor of a more combative style of politics.

“Every elected official who believed that has retired, lost or is about to lose,” the Democratic strategist said. Rebecca Katzwho named his company “Fight Agency” after the GOP won the 2024 election. Democratic voters’ attitudes quickly shifted toward seeking a confrontational posture toward the GOP — similar to what Republican voters had demanded of their party after Barack Obama won the 2008 elections.

In March 2025, an NBC News poll found that 65% of self-identified Democrats wanted their representatives in Congress to “stick to their positions even if it means not getting things done,” while only 32% said they wanted to “compromise with President Trump to gain consensus on legislation.”

This is a dramatic reversal from April 2017, around the same time in Trump’s first term, when an NBC News poll showed that 59% of Democrats wanted their leaders to compromise, while 33% wanted them to maintain their positions, or risk ending up in a stalemate.

As early as 2011, Democratic voters preferred a posture of compromise rather than combat. Trump’s second-term victory sparked something new within the base that didn’t exist under Presidents Biden or Obama.

We are far from the former first lady Michelle Obama’Famous quote: “When they go low, we go high.” » In fact, the leader of the parliamentary minority Hakeem JeffriesDN.Y., quotes itself on the front page of its website as saying: “When they go down, we fight back. »

Read more →

That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. Today’s newsletter was written by Adam Wollner.

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