There’s a Really Good Chance Bill Cassidy Doesn’t Even Make His Own Run-off on Saturday – RedState

When Sen. Bill Cassidy voted to convict Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, he gave his opponents a five-year grievance to campaign on. He didn’t expect to be a spectator in his own re-election fight.

Louisiana Republicans vote Saturday in a Senate primary that looks nothing like what Cassidy’s team had planned. Trump endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow in January and urged her to run. State Treasurer John Fleming, who announced his challenge in December 2024, has refused to clear the field. The result is a three-way race in which the incumbent is in third place and the two challengers have spent the last few weeks attacking each other, not him.

Where are the polls?

The most recent public survey of the race, conducted by Emerson College Polling and KLFY News 10, found Fleming at 28 percent, Letlow at 27 percent and Cassidy at 21 percent, with 22 percent still undecided. The survey was conducted last month among likely Republican primary voters.

This shows where the race has been heading for months. A Quantus Insights survey from February 2026 showed Fleming at 34%, Letlow at 25% and Cassidy at 20%. A previous JMC Analytics survey from October 2025 had Fleming at 25 percent and Cassidy at 23 percent before Letlow entered the race.

Robert Hogan, a political science professor at LSU, told the Louisiana Radio Network that these numbers pose a serious threat to Cassidy’s reputation.

“The key thing to keep in mind is that Bill Cassidy, an incumbent who won statewide in two previous elections, is very far behind,” Hogan said. “Some polls say he’s third.”

He added that if Cassidy finishes third on Saturday, his political career will likely be over.

Trump and Landry have endorsed Letlow. Fleming stayed anyway.

Trump endorsed Letlow on January 18, 2026. Governor Jeff Landry quickly followed. Most other challengers who were considering a run have withdrawn. The White House hoped the ground would consolidate around Letlow, paving the way for a straight Trump v. Cassidy verdict.

Fleming didn’t move.

Louisiana’s state treasurer, who is largely funding his campaign, has argued from the start that Trump’s support is going to the wrong candidate. “What people were looking for from President Trump to support was actually a candidate like me, but what they got was a candidate very similar to Cassidy,” Fleming told CNN.

Fleming’s speech is based on a specific moment. He served as Trump’s deputy chief of staff during the final months of the first administration and was at the White House on January 6. While others resigned, Fleming stayed. “There were a lot of resignations at the White House on January 6,” he said. “I stood there, I stayed there and I didn’t leave my post.”

Fleming made this argument against the Trump-backed candidate, and he garnered enough support to ensure no one crossed the 50 percent threshold on Saturday. A runoff on June 27 is widely considered a certainty.

Cassidy’s money, Cassidy’s problem

Cassidy entered this race with the most money. According to NOLA.com, a super PAC supporting Cassidy spent $17.4 million on advertising through the beginning of May, compared to $5 million for Letlow and about $680,000 for Fleming. Cassidy also held a significant liquidity advantage over both opponents as of April 1.

Money did not translate into votes. Cassidy’s fundraising base is tied to his position as chairman of the Senate HELP committee and his tenure as Louisiana’s senior senator, the same qualifications that Republican primary voters have spent months viewing as a liability.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune led a fundraiser for Cassidy in Baton Rouge in January. National Republicans have remained largely behind beyond that, confident that the seat remains in GOP hands, regardless of who wins. Trump’s team, on the other hand, has made this race a personal one. Axios reported that Cassidy is the only one Republican Sen. Trump’s team is targeting to defeat this primary cycle.

Cassidy debate ignored

Fleming and Letlow debated May 5 on Moon Griffon’s conservative radio show. Cassidy refused to participate, despite repeated invitations. Griffon regularly refers to Cassidy as “Psycho Bill,” and the senator completely ignored the event, leaving his two opponents alone on stage to draw the contrasts voters will bring into the voting booth.

Letlow called Cassidy’s impeachment vote “the worst mistake Cassidy could have made” and said Louisiana voters “never forgot him.” Fleming spent much of the debate arguing that Letlow is not fundamentally different from the incumbent president she is running against.

Cassidy’s campaign responded to the debate with a statement calling the clash a “cage match” and attaching pictures of popcorn. A Cassidy adviser told reporters this week that Fleming was “laying down a tough charge” in the final days but that the campaign would remain focused on Letlow, the candidate Cassidy considers to be the real front-runner and his preferred opponent in the runoff.

What Cassidy works on

Cassidy’s argument to voters is simple: He kept his promises for Louisiana. He cites the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which he helped negotiate and which brought in about $13.5 billion to the state. He describes himself as “a pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, pro-oil and gas conservative” who works across the aisle when Louisiana needs it.

He also spent months pushing back against the MAHA movement, lobbying Robert F. Kennedy Jr. during his confirmation hearing on vaccine science. Cassidy ultimately voted to confirm Kennedy, but has since criticized several of Kennedy’s policy decisions. Last month, Trump blamed Cassidy for blocking the nomination of Casey Means for surgeon general.

“I don’t really think President Trump likes me very much, but we work very well together,” Cassidy told reporters recently, recounting a conversation with a constituent at Home Depot.

A new primary system, a different electorate

Saturday’s primary is being conducted under rules that didn’t exist the last time Cassidy ran. Louisiana moved from its open jungle primaries, where all candidates appeared on a single ballot, to closed partisan primaries for the U.S. Senate starting this cycle, following legislation signed by Governor Landry in 2024. Registered Republicans only vote in the Republican primary. The Democrats are out. Unaffiliated voters can participate in either primary.

Cassidy’s two previous victories, in 2014 and 2020, came under the jungle primary system, where his main opposition came from Democrats. On Saturday, he will only face Republican voters, the most likely to organize the impeachment vote against him.

Polls close at 8 p.m. Central Time. If no candidate obtains 50 percent, the top two advance to the June 27 runoff.