Scientists drop the most extreme and apocalyptic climate scenario (Image: Getty Images)
The feared doomsday may no longer be on the horizon, as climate scientists dismiss the most apocalyptic scenario as “implausible.”
The world’s top climate modelers offered an update on the scientific scenarios that are used to explore and predict the future evolution of Earth’s climate.
The scientists have now ruled out the most apocalyptic worst-case scenario, citing trends in renewable energy, emerging climate policy, and recent emissions data. It comes after it emerged Stephen Hawking predicted the exact date of the apocalypse.
In 2010, climate scientists predicted that the most catastrophic climate scenario could be a rise of about 4.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100. However, the modelers no longer believe that the feared scenario is likely.
According to a study in the journal Geoscientific Model Development, the high-emissions scenario predicts 3.5 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100.
The researchers cited trends in renewable energy as a reason for the updated scenario (Image: Getty Images)
The updated climate scenarios were developed by the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), an international committee comprising 20 scientific experts.
The researchers wrote that the climate scenarios are critical to climate change analysis as different research communities can use the data to “explore potential future avenues of socio-economic conditions, assess the effects of different drivers of climate change, characterize future climatic conditions, and assess impacts of climate change as well as adaptation and mitigation responses.”
The researchers found that the worst-case climate scenario has become “implausible, based on trends in the costs of renewables, the emergence of climate policy and recent emission trends.”
These updated scenarios will offer new insights for the next assessment by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The new climate prediction is ‘no reason to celebrate,’ says lead researcher
Detlef van Vuuren, a senior researcher at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and lead author of the study, warned that the updated climate scenario is “no reason to celebrate,” as reported by The Times.
“That [3.5C] would still be a very much worst-case scenario with considerable climate impacts,” van Vuuren told the outlet. “At the same time, yes, it is to some degree also good news that there are also signs that renewables are getting cheaper, which has an impact on our projections.”
According to the study, the design of the high emission scenario “explores a future world that weakens or even abandons mitigation actions and policies – in combination with other development trends that could lead to high emissions.”
“The scenario is based on trends that may not be the most likely (based on a current assessment), but that are still plausible,” the researchers wrote.
For instance, the high-emission scenario may be plausible if there are “deep political, technological, and structural deviation from current trends.”
Essentially, if there’s a major reversal of low-cost renewable energy and global policy efforts to combat climate change, the extreme climate scenario could be back on the table.
The updated scenarios come as many scientists have raised concerns that we’re reaching a tipping point, with the Earth experiencing more frequent extreme weather events and recording the hottest temperatures.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2025 was one of the warmest years on record, and the last 11 years have been the warmest on record, with ocean heating continuing to escalate.
Meanwhile, it emerged that a billionaire’s nuclear doomsday bunkers in an unexpected location has a major flaw.
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