Thomas Massie’s Defeat Will Tighten Trump’s Grip on the GOP
These electoral results are terrible for the country. Trump is an authoritarian who uses the presidency to enrich himself and punish his political enemies. The chances of Republican politicians taking action to rein it in were already close to zero, and these early results will make Republican officials even more wary of antagonizing the president. Any Republican running for office in the next three years (and perhaps even after Trump leaves office) knows they can end their career. And think about the undemocratic precedent set here. Trump led an insurrection; Cassidy voted to approve it. Republican voters in Louisiana chose loyalty to their leader over a senator who defended democracy.
On the other hand, there are now two senators (Cassidy and Thom Tiillis of North Carolina, retired) who have very frosty relations with Trump and probably a third (Cornyn if he loses). Susan Collins of Maine is re-elected in a Democratic-leaning state. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska also go their own way from time to time. It is therefore possible that in a Senate where Republicans control 53 seats, they will only have 47 “yes” votes. Cassidy, just days after his defeat, supported a resolution to end the war in Iran and indicated he would oppose funding for Trump’s White House ballroom. Legislation and judicial confirmations (perhaps even for the Supreme Court if a justice retires) are likely to become more difficult for Trump.
And loyalty to Trump on the part of the Republican base is not at all shared by average voters. Polls show that about 60 percent of Americans disapprove of the president, compared to fewer than 40 percent who approve. Even 47% of moderate Republicans disapprove of Trump, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll. The same was true for 60% of men, 74% of Hispanics, and 75% of Americans ages 18 to 29, three groups that were more pro-Trump than expected in the 2024 election.
