It’s Officially Election Season In Trumpworld
Trumpworld is now turning its attention to the upcoming round of primaries that could have a big impact on the November midterm elections. So today, all eyes are on the upcoming primary elections. Republican strategists tell me they are next on the White House priority list: Texas, California and Maine.
Confrontation in Texas
President Donald Trump made a last-minute endorsement Tuesday in Texas’ Senate primary runoffs, throwing his support behind Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent John Cornyn. Trump’s political strategists are already preparing for any consequences.
The primary is May 26, and the president’s decision to throw his support behind just a week in advance surprised some of his own aides, sources familiar with the dynamics within the White House told WIRED. But on Truth Social, Trump said he supported Paxton because the candidate had “been through a lot.”
Indeed, Paxton did. In 2023, he faced impeachment charges; he took a plea deal in 2024 and paid about $300,000 in restitution — without admitting guilt — to avoid a securities fraud trial. And in 2025, he was accused of adultery by his wife, who filed for divorce on “biblical grounds.” He was also the subject of a yearlong federal grand jury investigation into his alleged abuse of power, which the DOJ closed without charges in the final weeks of Joe Biden’s presidency.
Paxton’s baggage means that if he beat Cornyn, as many in Washington now expect after Trump’s endorsement, it would have consequences for Republicans later in the midterms, and for the White House in its dealings with Congress.
The main concern is whether Paxton’s history and presentation as a MAGA candidate might be too objectionable to voters in the November general election, making Democrats more energized because they view Paxton as easier to beat than Cornyn.
As a result, if Democratic candidate James Talarico could emulate Beto O’Rourke in 2018 and post large fundraising hauls from small donors, Republicans would have to respond by spending more themselves — money that could have been used for vulnerable Republicans in other races.
Meanwhile, the White House will now need to focus on whether Trump’s endorsement will shake up the dynamic in the Senate over the next six months through the midterms, two longtime Republican campaign strategists told WIRED.
Sen. Bill Cassidy, apparently furious with Trump after losing his Louisiana primary last week, has already begun making clear his opposition to the president’s legislative priorities. The fear is that Cornyn will soon feel the same way.
“It’s short-sighted thinking,” says a Republican strategist who worked on the Trump 2024 campaign and spoke on condition of anonymity. “Cornyn has been a reliable vote on big issues and now Trump is facing battles in the Senate.”
The problem with the slim 53-47 Senate majority is that it would only take two disgruntled Republicans, in addition to Cassidy and Cornyn, to vote with Democrats to prevent Trump from using congressional funds to finance his ballroom or further military actions in Iran.
Finally, Trumpworld is monitoring the possible consequences inside Trump’s orbit if Paxton wins.
Trump’s 2024 campaign co-leader Chris LaCivita and 2024 pollster Tony Fabrizio are both working on Cornyn’s campaign. Minutes after Trump’s endorsement of Paxton, longtime LaCivita foe Corey Lewandowski posted on X declaring that the Cornyn campaign was dead.
The White House declined to comment on which races it was tracking and referred WIRED to President Paxton for approval.
Curiosity in California
As the White House follows the final week of campaigning in Texas, some Trumpworld campaign strategists tell WIRED they are also watching what happens in the primary for California’s gubernatorial race scheduled for June 2.
Interest in the race is mostly academic, as they expect the seat to remain solidly Democratic. But California uses a primary system in which the top two candidates, regardless of party, advance to the November general election.
