Raúl Castro’s indictment marks important new chapter for the U.S. and Cuba: From the Politics Desk

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In today’s edition, Andrea Mitchell examines the next chapter in U.S.-Cuba relations following the indictment of Raúl Castro. Plus, Allan Smith focuses on a handful of critical House contests that played out during yesterday’s primaries in battleground Pennsylvania.

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—Adam Wollner

Indictment of Raúl Castro: a first step towards change in Cuba?

Analysis by Andrea Mitchell

President Donald Trump He has been saying for months that the regime in Havana must go, one way or another. Today, his Justice Department took a big step toward doing just that by charging Raul Castro — the 94-year-old former Cuban president and brother of Fidel Castro – in connection with the murder of four unarmed Miami anti-Castro activists 30 years ago.

The Cuban exiles were flying two small Cessna planes when they were shot down by Cuban Air Force pilots flying Soviet-made MIG planes. Raúl Castro was Defense Minister at the time and is believed to have ordered the attack. Five pilots were also charged today.

Announcing the indictment at Miami’s Freedom Tower, an iconic landmark for Cuban Americans, the acting attorney general Todd Blanche said an arrest warrant had been issued for Castro. “This is not a sham indictment,” Blanche said. “This is an indictment because we expect him to come here either of his own volition or through some other means.” Asked whether the United States could extract Castro in the same way as Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was removed earlier this year, Blanche said: “I would say to those who are wondering: Is this just an indictment and we’ll leave, it’s not.” »

Military experts acknowledge that Cuba would be a tougher target than Venezuela, where the United States was tracking Maduro and had intelligence on his precise location. Venezuela was Cuba’s main source of oil. But since Maduro’s capture in January, the U.S. Navy has blocked fuel and other supplies from reaching the island. The shortages have led to daily power cuts and the lack of food and medicine is now critical.

In a message posted today in Spanish on social media, Secretary of State Marco Rubioborn to Cuban-American parents, said the United States was ready to open a new chapter in its relations with Cuba, but the only obstacle was those who control the country – the regime.

The families of the four pilots killed in Miami and other members of the community applauded the indictments they had sought for three decades. This is a politically powerful decision and a strong sign of more to come. Florida’s large, politically active population of Cuban immigrants has exercised outsized influence over presidents of both parties for a half-century.

Break with the past, Barack Obama as president, he restored diplomatic relations with the communist regime, traveled to Havana for a state visit, held a joint press conference with Raúl Castro, and attended a baseball game with him in 2016. During his first term, Trump reversed many of Obama’s initiatives, strengthening economic sanctions against Cuba. Today, Trump and Rubio say they want to force the regime to reform, without excluding the use of force.

The National Security Archives, a research institute, released declassified documents from the mid-1990s, obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, revealing that the Federal Aviation Administration had repeatedly warned the White House and State Department for more than a year that the anti-Castro group risked a confrontation with Cuba by entering what Havana claimed was its airspace and occasionally dropping anti-Castro leaflets. At the time, in 1996, two senior officials told NBC News that the administration was unwilling to oppose the Miami Group while he was president. Bill Clinton was seeking re-election.

According to another email, a month before the incident, an FAA official warned that “further provocations against the Cuban government” could lead to a “worst case scenario” and that “one of these days the Cubans will shoot down one of these planes and the FAA better have all its ducks in a row.” Another memo reported that the White House had been warned last August of a “major concern” that a plane could be shot down. For the past year, the Cuban government has been protesting flights to the FAA.

Rubio said the administration would not tolerate a country just 90 miles away posing a threat to national security. Cubans say they pose no threat to the United States and accuse the administration of being the aggressor.

It appears that today is just the beginning of the next important chapter in U.S.-Cuba relations since the 1959 revolution.

For subscribers: More Democrats than Republicans voted in Georgia’s big primaries — but it didn’t flip two key races

Analysis by Makenzie Kerneckel, Stephen Pettigrew and Bridget Bowman

Democrats turned out in unusually high numbers in Georgia’s primaries yesterday, but that didn’t help the party overturn two state Supreme Court runoffs that were running concurrently with the party’s elections. And an analysis of election data from NBC News Decision Desk shows how Democrats’ partisan turnout advantage has collapsed in some counties.

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👟 More for subscribers: Democrats rush into region ahead of 2028 presidential primaries, by Jonathan Allen

4 swing House races in Pennsylvania loom large for midterms — and for 2028

By Allan Smith

Control of the House of Representatives could come down to four crucial battleground races in Pennsylvania.

With an increasingly limited map of competitive seats, both Democrats and Republicans are emphasizing the importance of these campaigns, which are poised to see an influx of money and investment from both sides.

Potential candidate for the 2028 presidential election, the Democratic governor. Josh Shapiro has placed emphasis on these four races, giving its main support to each competition and signaling that it will be deeply involved in them as November approaches. Help battleground Democrats win, and Shapiro will be able to tell Democratic presidential voters how he helped the party take back the House and defeat a wide range of Republican House members. Failing to do so will place its political strength under greater scrutiny.

And there is the Donald Trump factor too. Pennsylvania – a state critical to his 2016 and 2024 victories – is one of his busiest campaign stops. Republican victories, especially those of one of its closest allies in Congress, would strengthen its own political strength in a context that promises to be a difficult electoral cycle for the Republican Party. Unlike Shapiro, however, Trump has not yet indicated what role he will play in these contests.

Yesterday’s primaries locked down the cast of characters in these districts, even though most of the matchups were all but assured beforehand.

In Pennsylvania’s 1st District, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick – one of the only Republicans in Congress to win a district carried by then-Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 – will face Bucks County commissioner Bob Harvie. In the 7th District, first-term representative. Ryan Mackenzie will take on the head of the state firefighters union Bob Brooks in the most dynamic district in the state. In the neighboring 8th District, another first-term Republican, Rep. Rob Bresnahanwill face the mayor of Scranton Paige Cognetti. And in the state’s 10th District, Rep. Scott Perryformer head of House Freedom Caucus, will face former news anchor Janelle Stelson in a rematch from a 2024 contest, Perry narrowly won.

NBC News spoke with more than a dozen Pennsylvania political operatives, national strategists working on the races and candidates running in them. The picture that has emerged is of a Democratic Party eager to zoom in on a tightly clustered group of pickup opportunities and team up with Shapiro in races, while Republicans, aware of the challenges ahead, hope their battle-hardened incumbents can withstand the onslaught.

And candidates on both sides, meanwhile, present themselves as being above the partisanship of Washington, D.C. and in touch with the concerns of the working class.

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That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. Today’s newsletter was written by Adam Wollner.

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