MLB Best Home Run Bets July 23
More free choices on the inside the lines blog
MLB BEST HR BET 7/23
José Ramírez (key) +390, fanduel
Ramírez has three circuits in his last four games and now has a circuit in 7 of his last 12. Zach Eflin made his first departure in almost a month, and when he is healthy this season, he was not lively – going to 16 circuits in just 62 sleeves launched. During his last 3 departures alone, he abandoned 27 strokes and 5 circuits. We set the line to +300 so that Ramírez reached an HR.
Christian Yelich (MIL) +650, BETMGM
Luis Castillo was dominant during his last 4 departures, not allowing a single home run during this section. However, get +650 for Yelich to Homer is worth a longshot game. Yelich has 41 appearances against Castillo in his career, going 6 for 29 with a home run and 11 goals on balls. This familiarity should work in favor of Yelich. Castillo granted 1.3 HR / 9 in the last two seasons, although this number fell to 0.9 hr / 9 this year. We take the angle that Castillo should abandon one or two circuits today. We set the Yelich line to +410 in Homer.
Francisco Lindor (NYM) +400, BetMGM
Lindor is 0-for-28 over his last 6 games, but we’re buying low on him today. The Angels are going with a bullpen game, and their bullpen owns the third-worst ERA in the majors at 5.06. They also lead MLB in home runs allowed with 59. Lindor has a .843 OPS at home this season, so if you’re going to buy low during a slump, doing it at home makes sense. We set Lindor’s line at +340 to hit a HR.
Last Month of Home Run Picks
Below is a recap of the past month of Home Run picks (over +32 units). You can see based on the units (-1u if they did not hit a HR) which hit and which did not. It does not include the 3-1 +1.68 unit Home Run Derby. You can visit the blog to see these picks when they were originally posted.
| 23-Jun | KETEL MARTE +380 DK (3.8u) | RONALD ACUNA +350 BETMGM (3.5u) | WYATT LANGFORD +525 BETMGM (-1u) | 6.25 |
| 24-Jun | JAC CAGLIANONE +700 bet365 (-1u) | PETE CROW-ARMSTRONG +470 FD (-1u) | ELLY DE LA CRUZ +370 FD (-1u) | -3 |
| 25-Jun | KYLE SCHWARBER +300 BETRIVERS (-1u) | RONALD ACUNA +375 BETMGM (-1u) | BRANDON LOWE +450 BETMGM (-1u) | -3 |
| 26-Jun | JOSE RAMIREZ +440 FD (-1u) | BRENT ROOKER +400 BETMGM (-1u) | RONALD ACUNA +360 BETMGM (-1u) | -3 |
| 27-Jun | NICK KURTZ +500 FD (-1u) | JUAN SOTO +450 FD (4.5u) | KETEL MARTE +525 BETMGM (-1u) | 2.5 |
| 28-Jun | RILEY GREENE +425 BETMGM (4.25u) | COLTON COWSER +400 BETMGM (-1u) | FRANCISCO LINDOR +390 FD (-1u) | 2.25 |
| 29-Jun | NICK KURTZ +420 BETRIVERS (-1u) | JUNIOR CAMINERO +450 BETRIVERS (-1u) | KETEL MARTE +500 BETRIVERS (5u) | 3 |
| 30-Jun | WILYER ABREU +420 FD (4.2u) | KETEL MARTE +600 BETMGM (-1u) | JOSH JUNG +600 BETMGM (-1u) | 2.2 |
| 1-Jul | RILEY GREENE (DNP) | JUAN SOTO (DNP) | BYRON BUXTON +460 BETRIVERS (-1u) | -1 |
| 2-Jul | NICK KURTZ +470 FD (-1u) | RILEY GREENE +400 BETMGM (4u) | JUNIOR CAMINERO +390 BETRIVERS (-1u) | 2 |
| 3-Jul | CAM SMITH +500 FD (-1u) | PETE ALONSO +360 BETRIVERS (-1u) | RHYS HOSKINS +540 BETRIVERS (-1u) | -3 |
| 4-Jul | JUAN SOTO +390 FD (3.9u) | JUNIOR CAMINERO +360 BETMGM (-1u) | RONALD ACUNA +450 BETMGM (-1u) | 1.9 |
| 5-Jul | JAMES WOOD +375 BETMGM (-1u) | KETEL MARTE (DNP) | CHRISTIAN YELICH +540 FD (-1u) | -2 |
| 6-Jul | KYLE STOWERS +540 FD (-1u) | PETE ALONSO +450 FD (-1u) | BOBBY WITT +550 BETMGM (5.5u) | 3.5 |
| 7-Jul | RILEY GREENE +475 BETMGM (-1u) | KYLE SCHWARBER +450 DK (-1u) | KETEL MARTE (DNP) | -2 |
| 8-Jul | COREY SEAGER +430 FD (4.25u) | JUNIOR CAMINERO +450 DK (-1u) | JAMES WOOD +600 BETMGM (-1u) | 2.25 |
| 9-Jul | WILYER ABREU +450 BETMGM (4.5u) | JAZZ CHISHOLM +375 BETMGM (3.8u) | KYLE SCHWARBER +400 BETMGM (4u) | 12.25 |
| 10-Jul | JONATHAN ARANDA +560 FD (-1u) | PETE ALONSO +400 BETMGM (-1u) | WYATT LANGFORD +470 DK (-1u) | -3 |
| 11-Jul | SEIYA SUZUKI +425 DK (-1u) | JAZZ CHISHOLM +400 BETMGM (-1u) | COREY SEAGER +460 BETRIVERS (-1u) | -3 |
| 12-Jul | JAMES WOOD +390 DK (-1u) | GEORGE SPRINGER +425 BETMGM (-1u) | JUAN SOTO +425 BETMGM (4.25u) | 2.25 |
| 13-Jul | TYLER SODERSTROM +450 BETMGM (4.5u) | KETEL MARTE (DNP) | RILEY GREENE +525 BETMGM (5.25u) | 9.8 |
| 18-Jul | JUNIOR CAMINERO +425 BET365 (4.25u) | ONEILL CRUZ +425 DK (-1u) | GUNNAR HENDERSON +450 BETMGM (-1u) | 2.25 |
| 19-Jul | RONALD ACUNA +390 BET365 (-1u) | ONEILL CRUZ +420 BETRIVERS (-1u) | JOSE RAMIREZ +350 FD (3.5u) | 1.5 |
| 20-Jul | NICK KURTZ +400 FD (-1u) | RONALD ACUNA +380 DK (3.8u) | LUIS ROBERT +500 FD (-1u) | 1.8 |
| 21-Jul | JAMES WOOD +475 BETMGM (-1u) | GEORGE SPRINGER +450 DK (-1u) | BRANDON LOWE +400 BETMGM (-1u) | -3 |
| 22-Jul | JO ADELL +440 BETRIVERS (-1u) | JAZZ CHISHOLM +450 BETRIVERS (4.5u) | RILEY GRENE +500 BETMGM (-1u) | 2.5 |
| TOTAL PROFIT | 32.5 |
