Small Brazilian coffee producers fear for the future after Trump’s 50% tariff
By Eléonore Hughes and Diarlei Rodrigues
Porciuncula, Brazil (AP) – The Brazilian Natal José Da Silva often takes care of his modest coffee plantation inside the state of Rio de Janeiro in the middle of the night, sacrificing sleep to repel the parasites which could inflict injuries on his precious cultures.
But anxiety has disturbed his eye even more over the past few weeks, after President Donald Trump’s announcement earlier this month of a 50% rate on Brazilian imported goods, which experts expect to reduce the price of coffee in Brazil.
Da Silva sighed by telling his fears, sitting on the dry earth surrounded by his shiny green Arabica coffee shrubs, in the small municipality of Porciuncula.
“We are sad because we have so many problems. We spend years fighting to go somewhere. And suddenly, it all starts to collapse, and we will lose everything,” said Da Silva. “How are we going to survive?”
Price linked to the Bolsonaro trial
Trump’s price on Brazil is openly political. In his public letter detailing the reasons for the hike, the American president called on the trial of his ally, former president Jair Bolsonaro, a “witch hunt”. Bolsonaro is accused of having certified a coup to reverse his electoral defeat in 2022 against the leftist president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The price has triggered corps of fear in Brazil, especially among sectors with deep ties with the American market such as beef, orange juice – and coffee. Coffee producer minors say that the import tax will reach their margins and add to the uncertainty already generated by an increasingly dry and unpredictable climate.
Brazil, the largest coffee producer in the world, exports about 85% of its production. The United States is the best coffee buyer in the country and represent around 16% of exports, according to the Brazil coffee exporters’ council, Cecafe.
The president of the Deliberative Council of Cecafe, Márcio Ferreira, told journalists last week that he thought that the United States will continue to import Brazilian coffee, even with the heavy rate. “It is obvious that neither the United States nor any other source can abandon Brazil, even if it is a tariff,” he said.
The price could harm the competitiveness of Brazilian coffee in the United States
But the price will probably reduce the competitiveness of the Brazilian coffee in the United States and naturally reduce the demand, said Leandro Gilio, a world agro-industry professor at the Business School of Sao Paulo.
“There is no way that we can quickly redirect our coffee production to other markets,” said Gilio. “This mainly affects small producers, who have less financial power to make investments or support themselves in a period like this.”
Family farmers produce more than two thirds of Brazilian coffee. They are in the majority in the northwest region of the state of Rio, where there are most of the production of state coffee.
Coffee culture is the main economic activity of these municipalities. In Porciuncula, who neighbors the largest Minas Gerais producing coffee in Brazil, the soft mountains are superimposed with symmetrical lines of coffee shrubs.
Da Silva, who wore a straw hat for protection against the sun and a crucifix around his neck, has around 40,000 coffees. He started working in the fields at the age of 12.
In addition to coffee, he cultivates cassava, squash, bananas, oranges and lemons and with some chickens that provide fresh eggs. “We have them because of the fear of not being able to eat. We do not manage if everything was bought, because the profit is very low,” he said.
Last year, drought – made more likely by climate change of human origin – large devastated expanses of the production of DA Silva. Reducing the offer increased coffee prices, but only after many small farmers had already sold all their crops.
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Coffee producer Jose Natal Da Silva, right, and his wife Fernanda Marsola Harvest Coffee Beans on their farm in Porciuncula, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, Thursday July 17, 2025. (AP photo / Bruna Prado)
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Coffee producer Jose Natal Da Silva, right, and his wife Fernanda Marsola Harvest Coffee Beans on their farm in Porciuncula, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, Thursday July 17, 2025. (AP photo / Bruna Prado)
Develop
Since the peak in February, Arabica prices have dropped, lowering 33% by July, according to the advanced Center for Studies of the University of Sao Paulo in applied economy, which provides renowned raw materials.
“When you make an investment, counting on a certain price for coffee, then when you are going to sell it, the price is 20 to 30% less than what you have calculated, it breaks the producers,” said Paulo Vitor Menezes Freitas, 31, who also has a modest plantation of around 35,000 cafes in the neighboring municipality of Varre-Sai.
Coffee culture requirements
Life in the fields is difficult, according to Menezes Freitas.
During the harvest season, he sometimes gets up at 3 am to light a coffee dryer, go to bed until midnight. The rest of the year is less intense, but there are still few breaks because there is always work to do, he said.
Menezes Freitas, who awaits his first child in October, said that the announcement of the price had increased his fears for the future.
“It’s scary. It feels like being on trembling ground. If things get worse, what will we do? People will start to remove their coffee and find other ways to survive because they will not have the means to continue,” he said.
In addition to reducing the value of its coffee grains, Menezes Freitas said that the price will have an impact on machines and aluminum – products that producers as it use every day.
“We hope it will calm down. I hope they will come back to their minds and to withdraw this price. I think it would be better for the United States and Brazil,” he said.
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