Former diplomat Kurt Volker on Ukraine talks between the U.S. and Russia : NPR

Leila Fadel, host:

To find out more about what could happen with these new discussions between the United States and the Kremlin, we are joined by Ambassador Kurt Volker. He is a distinguished scholarship holder with the Center for European Policy Analysis, a former NATO ambassador and previously the special representative of Ukraine during the first term of President Trump. Welcome to the program.

Kurt Volker: Hello, Leila. THANKS.

Fadel: Hello. The president therefore established this deadline on Friday for a cease-fire in Ukraine or more sanctions for Russia. Is there something special that Witkoff can say or offer the Russian President Putin to get closer to a ceasefire?

Volker: Well, first of all, President Trump is the decision maker here, and I think that the role of Steve Witkoff is really to tell Putin that he is very disappointed. Trump still wants an agreement. He would love to have an arrangement with Russia, but Russia continues the war, so it has no choice, and this is really a last chance. This is what I think Witkoff’s message will be. And Putin, it’s just that he wants to continue the war. You know, he feels that he has a certain momentum. He wants to take over all of Ukraine, and that is part of his way to rebuild the Russian Empire. And he’s not going to stop. He can offer something insignificant, like a telephone call with Zelenskyy and Trump or perhaps another meeting in Istanbul, but he does not intend to stop the war.

Fadel: So what is it for? I mean, if the sanctions – the sanctions have not worked so far. There were deadlines before that Putin generally did not seem concerned. He didn’t say anything publicly. I mean, what is the interest of this pressure campaign if it does not work?

Volker: Well, I think the goal is to stop war. I think the only thing Putin responds is pressure is strength. And so there are two sides to this. There is the military side, and President Trump, as we have just heard, has already approved the transfer of American weapons and ammunition to Ukraine if they are bought by our European allies. There is more than we could do there. We could set up legislation on ready-to-lease for Ukraine so that they can take us, buy weapons and reimburse us later. But it’s a side, it’s the military side.

And then the other side is economical where it is important to try to stop the flow of funds in the Kremlin budget so that they can find it increasingly difficult to pay this war. And the sanctions have done certain things, but we have never really applied them. And I think that a combination of the prices of which President Trump speaks but also secondary sanctions against individuals and entities and insurance companies and ships and ports, everything involved in the move of this Russian oil or payment – banks, for example. So these things, I think, could have a difference if we were very rigorous to apply it.

Fadel: But in your opinion, I mean, this Friday deadline is not something that will materialize. But these – the threat of force, the threat of paralyzing sanctions which will still paralyze Russia, is this that you think that something could change?

Volker: Well, I think – yeah. I think Putin will try to avoid this. He will offer something, but he won’t do what Trump asks him to do. And what is important here is that President Trump is really followed because one of Putin’s goals is to make Trump weak and undecided. This serves his interests in Ukraine, Europe, and it is very important for Trump not to let this happen.

Fadel: What do you do with his calm? I mean, nuclear submarines have been moved. Steve Witkoff is on the way. Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev was quite vocal online, but the president himself did not do so.

Volker: Yes. I think it’s typical for Putin. He likes to have Medvedev as a kind of attack dog and say bizarre things and worry people, then Putin can describe himself as the real leader, the most reasonable person. But in reality, it is Putin who makes all the decisions and really stimulates this war.

Fadel: And what do you look as this meeting occurs this week?

Volker: Well, you know, I think we will have to hear what the two parties say after the meeting. Was it constructive? Did they do something? Was there an offer there? And then I think that it is really important for President Trump to continue to insist on his own requests to have an immediate cease-fire, to stop the murder and not to be trained in a process of descent of all these rabbit holes on the prerequisites that Russia wants. He wants a commitment to Ukrainian neutrality. He wants a change of government. He wants an election. These are all ways that Putin uses to really avoid a ceasefire.

Fadel: Ambassador Kurt Volker was Ukraine’s special representative in the first Trump administration. Thank you for your time.

Volker: My pleasure. THANKS.

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