As Israel and Iran weigh truce, US troops in region remain on alert
The ceasefire between Iran and Israel on Monday was announced by President Donald Trump, in doubt that these nations were really on board.
A few hours later, some analysts were retained by an example of the effectiveness of significant but limited use of American military power.
The ceasefire came in the heels of a massive military strike on Sunday during which the United States followed Israel by attacking Iranian nuclear installations. President Trump quickly declared “overwhelming success” and from the point of view of the American army, it was indeed the case.
Why we wrote this
Iran attacked an American military base in response to the bombing of its nuclear sites. The American bases in the Middle East remain on high alert in the middle of a hoped-for truce.
Operation Midnight Hammer, like its code name, was a “complex and high risk mission” involving disappointment tactics like lure bombers, said General Dan Caine, president of the joint staff chiefs, later in the day. No known blow was taken from the B-2 bombers involved, he added.
The risks extend beyond this attack. On Monday, Iran was aiming for missiles at the Al Udeid air base in Qatar, the largest American military installation in the Middle East. Sirens in the American bases in Iraq and Kuwait have asked American forces to worry about possible other attacks.
Non-interventionists, many of whom are Republicans, have stressed the vulnerability of 40,000 American troops in the region as proof of their point. “If we did not have troops in the region, they could not hit us at all,” said Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East Program at the Priority Think Tank Defense. “We have given them hostages in the form of our own staff in these military bases which they can threaten. And I think they will do it. ”
Congress Research Service, Foreign Relations Council
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Jacob Turcotte / Staff
In less than an hour, the reprisal dam was considered a face saving measure, allowing Tehran to respond while minimizing climbing possibilities. It turned out that Iran had given Qatar an approval on the dam, which Qatar duly passed in the United States
In a position on Monday afternoon, President Trump thanked Iran for “the notice”, adding that 13 of the Iranian missiles were “slaughtered” and that on the 14th was “released” as non-threatening.
“Perhaps Iran can now proceed with peace and harmony in the region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same,” said the post.
Defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, went to the podium in his very first Pentagon press room briefing on Sunday to emphasize that neither the Iranian troops nor the Iranians were the target of the American army and that the United States was not looking for war.
“This mission was not and was not a matter of regime change,” he said. President Trump “was fully attached to the peace process” and “wanted a negotiated result”.
The military objective of the operation was rather to “destroy or severely degrade the Iranian nuclear program,” added Secretary Hegseth.
This “or” was the key, analysts said. The difference, they added, could trigger Tehran on an even more determined breaking race for nuclear weapons – or put an end to its quest, and return it to the negotiating table.
The American show of force seems to have pushed Iran to negotiate. It remains to be seen if its nuclear ambitions will end.
Iran has long been motivated to pursue nuclear weapons because it considers them “ultimate deterrence. And Iran is right, “Vice-President of the Defense and Security Department of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in an analysis on Monday. As proof, do not look any further than North Korea (which has them) or Ukraine (which has not and was confronted with the invasion by Russia).
Given the Western concerns that Iran with nuclear arms would destabilize the region, President Trump’s decision to bomb the nuclear sites in Tehran was “probably the right call,” said Harding.
Managers of the Trump administration already declared on Sunday, with a characteristic certainty, that it was definitively.
“American deterrence is back,” said Hegseth.
Now attention will turn to the quantity of nuclear weapon manufacturing capacity from Iran destroyed during the weekend.
The satellites show that Iranian trucks came and frequently come from Iranian nuclear power plants in the perspective of Sunday bombings, potentially carrying enriched uranium and centrifuge, the expert in arms control Jeffrey Lewis, professor at the Institute of Middlebury of International Studies in Monterey, Middlebury College de Vermont, noted on X.
The reports have indicated that the images appear up to 16 freight trucks near the installation of Fordo on June 19 and 20 and suggest that these trucks may have been used to move Iranian uranium stocks or seal the entry tunnels before the attacks. The trucks seemed to move an unidentified content to about half a million, depending on the report. The Iranian state media reported that the three sites had been evacuated before the strikes.
The United Nations nuclear surveillance dog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, will probably have a big role to play in cataloging of certain parts of the Iranian nuclear program and the parties.
Press service of the Iranian Army / AP
For this, “they will need Iran’s cooperation-or at least the cooperation of people who know all these assets and stocks,” explains Andrea Strickler, assistant director of the non-proliferation and biodefense non-reflection program during the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies Think Tank.
In the absence, there is the imminent threat that additional US military measures could be taken.
Meanwhile, the American military forces of the region remain on alert for potential ceasefire violations, or shots of militant groups often described as Iranian proxies, but not always fully liable to Tehran.
Although these groups were generally weakened by Israeli attacks against Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as by us, the strikes on the Houthi, the three groups retain capacities to attack American military interests in places like Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, explains Bryan Clark, Hudson Institute.
“Forces protection is something that commanders constantly evaluate,” said American army colonel Martin O’Donnell, spokesperson for the Supreme NATO ally. “Obviously, in the light of recent events, this constant evaluation becomes all the more important.”
