70 years of data reveal adaptation measures slash European flood losses and fatalities

Humans adapt to floods through private measures, early alert systems, emergency preparation and other solutions. A new allocation study of the potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) shows that such an adaptation other than the defense of structural floods has reduced the economic losses of the flood by 63% and deaths by 52% since 1950.

The study analyzes seven decades of historical impact of floods across Europe and shows how adaptation measures have reduced damage over time.

Damage caused by floods are the result of the interaction between dangers, such as strong precipitation or storm overvoltages, exposure, that is to say how many people and assets are located in vulnerable areas, and vulnerability, that is to say how are these zones affected by floods.

“Flood protection and other adaptation measures have largely compensated for the growing risk of flooding expansion in floodplays and climate change through the continent since 1950”, explains Dominik Paprotny, Pik researcher and principal author of the attribution study published in Scientific advances.

“The vulnerability has been considerably reduced, but the progress of adaptation has been slower in the past 20 years, indicating the need for additional efforts to prevent an increase in flooding loss of climate change in the future.”

According to the study, economic losses in Europe due to the floods and the number of people affected have increased by around 8% since 1950 due to climate change. The research team has examined 1,729 floods that occurred across Europe between 1950 and 2020, comparing them in scenarios with and without climate and socioeconomic changes since 1950.

Using data on the historical damage of these events, the researchers were also able to deduct changes in the level of protection provided by measures such as dikes, dams, early alert systems and modified construction regulations over time.

Their results show that increased exposure has dominated the increase in damage. However, improved protective measures and reduced vulnerability partially compensated for this trend.

Damage to GDP fell to a third party

The study identifies the factors of long -term trends in the damage caused by floods in Europe, revealing clear regional differences: flood protection levels have improved more in Western and South Europe than in the eastern and northern parts of the continent. In addition, the study shows that vulnerability has decreased through the continent – to a few exceptions, in particular for the affected population in certain parts of Eastern Europe.

Absolute economic losses have almost doubled, compared to 37 billion euros between 1950 and 1960 and 71 billion euros in the last decade. However, compared to the gross domestic product (GDP) of the study area, the economic impact has decreased considerably as a percentage, which now represents about a third of that of the 1950s. Indeed, economic growth since the 1950s has exceeded the increase in damage.

Adaptation to its limits

“We can reduce damage thanks to adaptation, but adaptation to its limits,” explains Katja Frieler, head of the international model of the inter-comparison model of the ISIMIP climate model at PIK and co-author of the study.

“As warming increases, we get closer to these limits.” Over the past four years, several particularly serious floods have occurred, such as the flood of Ahrtal in Germany in 2021.

“It is important to continuously monitor the progress of adaptation and impacts of climate change, and quickly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to maintain the impacts of climate change within the manageable limits,” concludes Friery.