Hamas strategy is end war with Israel and survive : NPR
Hamas fighters patrol in a street before putting three Israeli hostages back in a Red Cross team in Deir El-Balah, Central Gaza, on February 8.
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Like Aviv, Israel – almost two years after launching the surprise attack that sparked the war with Israel, Hamas is against a wall.
Its combat force was struck by Israel, its charismatic leadership has been almost murdered and its cease-fire negotiators are faced with unprecedented pressure from Arab governments to abandon its weapons and its reign.
“Hamas faces its worst crisis to date,” said Esmat Mansour, a Palestinian political commentator based in the West Bank and former activist, who is in contact with figures close to Hamas. “Hamas faces pressures from all directions: from Israel, the street, west and the Arab countries.”
Yahya Sinwar (Center), head of the Hamas Gaza Strip at the time, shakes hands with a hidden fighter of the group’s Qassam brigades during a birthday rally in Gaza City, on December 14, 2022. Israel believes that Sinwar was a mastery of the fatal on October 7, 2023, the attack in the country. The Israeli army said it killed him in an operation in southern Gaza in October 2024.
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The most immediate pressure comes from the last threat of Israel: besieging the city of Gaza, after having moved hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in the city, and sent soldiers inside to fight against what Israel considers as one of the last major bastions of Hamas. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered military planners to speed up preparations for the Gaza City offensive, and military officials have called on hospitals to plan to evacuate.
Civilians in Gaza face the weight of the Israel campaign, a trip, air strikes and serious food shortages – with global famine experts announcing the famine conditions that have already taken root in Gaza.
For the first time, the 22 countries of the Arab League called a statement last month for Hamas to return Gaza and put its arms back.
These pressures have reached a head this week, when Hamas accepted an Egyptian and Qatari proposal for a cease-fire in Gaza-abandoning its initial reserves and accepting the conditions that the United States had initially proposed which would keep the Israeli troops with a significant hold on the territory in Gaza. Israel is considering his answer.
Israel is trying to put an end to the existence of Hamas as a military and governing force in Gaza, and Hamas knows that Israel is stronger militarily. Mansour claims that Hamas’ strategy is to maintain his currency of exchange, the Israeli hostages he has and to hope that circumstances change in Israel to the advantage of Hamas.
“Time plays in favor of Hamas, not for the benefit of Netanyahu,” explains Mansour. “THE [Israeli] The soldiers are exhausted, the Israeli demonstrations increase, perhaps the government will fall, perhaps there will be international pressure, especially because of the images of hunger, Europe will put pressure on American Hamas: “There is nothing worse than surrender. Why should I go? I remain firm and maybe the situation will change to my advantage and there will be an opportunity to negotiate from a better position. ‘”
Mansour says that “the main objective of Hamas is to exist and exist.”
Hamas thinks it has popular support on Arab Street
Hamas is currently focusing on improving its relations with Arab governments.
“The main disagreement between Hamas and the Arab countries is the armed struggle that Hamas uses in its clashes with the Israeli occupation,” said Ibrahim Al-Madhoun, Palestinian analyst of Gaza based in Istanbul and near Hamas. “But all Arab states understand that Palestine is a vital cause and Hamas is the most important player in the cause … Arab nations love Hamas.”
Samir Ghattas, an Egyptian security analyst who studies Hamas and Gaza, says that Hamas confuses Arabic support for the support of Hamas.
Palestinian fighters from Hamas escort an Israeli hostage or sample on a stage before putting it back to a Red Cross team in Deir El-Balah, Central Gaza, on February 8, as part of an exchange of hostage and ceasefire prisoners with Israel.
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“Hamas has only one card: hostages. Without hostages, Hamas has no cards at all,” said Ghattas. “There is no future for Hamas in Gaza while people blame Hamas for what happened, after having blamed Israel and Netanyhu for murder and destruction.”
Hamas increases its guerrillas
Israel has destroyed most of Hamas’ military capacities, but Hamas remains in Gaza as localized guerrilla warfare.
In a rare decision, a group of Hamas activists stormed an Israeli military position in the south of Gaza, leading to short -term fights. Most Hamas activists have been killed, according to the Israeli army.
Israel thinks Hamas may have tried to remove a soldier. The ambush shows how Hamas is always ready to fight at all costs.
In Gaza City, Mohammed Ahmad, 35, says that Hamas cannot afford to give up its weapons now.
“No one will accept during a battle and a continuous fight with the occupation to abandon their weapons,” said Ahmad. “The Israelis will not leave Gaza if Hamas abandons its weapons.”
Amjad Saleh, 22, says that civilians, not Hamas, pay the price of war.
“Hamas is not there at all. Their leaders are either abroad or in the underground tunnels in Gaza … They lead their operations and we are punished for that,” he said. “The travel plan is coming,” he said.
Mass displacement is now the greatest concern of Palestinians
The Israeli army called tens of thousands of other soldiers and promises in the coming weeks to take control of Gaza City and hunts hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in the south of Gaza near the Egyptian border. Israel finally seeks to send as many Palestinians as possible to other countries.
This could be a major driving factor for Egypt to help offer a new ceasefire and for Hamas to support it, to retain the greatest concern of a mass displacement of Gaza in Egypt or beyond.
Abu Bakr Bashir reported in London. Nuha Musleh contributed to this story of Ramallah, in the West Bank.
